President Joe Biden welcomes Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to the White House on Friday as the two leaders search for ways to counter China.
A new president’s first world leader meeting is a way to signal his foreign policy priorities, and the visit by Suga, who is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, underscores Tokyo’s central role in U.S. strategy to counter the rise of China.
“I think the idea of the visit is to underscore what we would really describe as almost an axiom or a maxim for the U.S. role in the region: The United States can only be effective in Asia when the U.S.-Japan relationship is strong, and Japan is steady and stable,” a senior administration official said.
Talks are expected to include measures to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on China, a commitment from Japan to help develop alternatives to Huawei and its 5G dominance, and an update on the troubled Tokyo Olympics.
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Suga succeeded Shinzo Abe in September. Before leaving for Washington, he told reporters that he was keen to build a “relationship of trust” with Biden.
Here’s what to look out for when the two leaders hold a joint press conference in the White House Rose Garden.
How far can Suga go on Taiwan?
China, and Japan’s role in helping the U.S. keep Beijing’s growing influence in check, will dominate talks. And the question for American diplomats is just how far Suga is prepared to go.
Japan is worried about China’s territorial claims in the East and South China Seas, but Suga is limited by his nation’s reliance on Beijing.
His commitment will perhaps be most clear in the language of a joint statement and whether or not it refers to Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province.
Japanese politicians are divided on whether Suga should offer a strong statement of support for an island that China views as a breakaway province. But American officials say they expect the two countries, for the first time in decades, to underline their backing for the status quo.
“I do want to underscore that neither country is seeking to raise tensions or to provoke China,” an American official said. “But at the same time, we’re trying to send a clear signal that some of the steps that China is taking, for instance … its fighters and bombers, flying them into Taiwan’s airspace, is antithetical to the mission of maintaining peace and stability.”
Human rights vs. trade
In the same way, Tokyo has not kept up with other nations that have sanctioned Chinese officials over disappearing political freedoms in Hong Kong and the treatment of the Uyghur ethnic minority.
China’s foreign minister has explicitly warned Tokyo about following suit and jeopardizing ties with its largest trading partner.
American officials understand the bind. Although the issues are certain to be discussed in private, the question is how much they come through in the joint communiqué and the Rose Garden.
“I don’t think we will … insist on Japan somehow signing on to every dimension of our approach,” said the senior American official.
An Olympic invitation?
But the meeting likely will not be all China.
Suga came to power amid a string of crises. Like Biden, he must contend with a pandemic and a global economic slump. But he faces a third major problem: What to do about the Tokyo Olympics? And a looming election.
“Although the United States is expecting more from Japan to be its voice in the Indo-Pacific, the wild card remains Japan’s own ability and appetite to take on that role,” said Shihoko Goto, of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program. “Suga will need to face a general election by September, but his popularity has been tepid at best.
“The continued uncertainties about Japan being able to host the Summer Olympics successfully, and its ability to bring down COVID infection rates, will be Suga’s focus.”
Already delayed by a year, the Olympics are due to go ahead in July despite widespread public opposition. In private, he is expected to provide an update to Biden on progress and how they will proceed in a safe and orderly fashion, despite his country’s slow vaccine rollout.
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And what better way for Suga to display his confidence and bolster those election chances? Look out for the Japanese prime minister to offer a public invitation to Biden to attend the games.
