NATO’s new strategic concept will incorporate the threat from China in a way that seeks to learn from failures to counter Russia’s influence, security analysts told the Washington Examiner, noting China is watching Russia’s techniques to drive wedges and weaken the alliance.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Tuesday that a 2010 alliance strategy document that spoke of Russia in terms of a “strategic partnership” needs to be scrapped as Russia continues hybrid warfare on the eastern flank. Likewise, the new framework must address how the 30 countries should view an emerging threat posed by China.
“We need to engage with China, but we also need to take into account the challenges Russia or China poses to our alliance,” Stoltenberg told reporters on a Zoom call after the NATO ministerial wrapped up Monday.
The warning is especially vital, considering how the alliance failed to fend off Russian aggression that created protracted conflicts in Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, and Armenia, some of whom aspired to greater proximity with Europe and membership in the defense alliance. Russia’s resulting military and intelligence creep positioned assets within 200 miles of NATO shores. Security experts say China is watching to see how, or if, allies will take a firmer stance. Meanwhile, China uses its economic power to better position itself militarily in Europe.
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“The Chinese are studying from the Russian behavior,” former Ukrainian diplomat Alexander Khara said in a recent meeting in Kyiv. “Not just techniques, but some ideas how they are just crossing the lines, how they behave below the threshold of the conflict.”
Stoltenberg noted China’s aggressive pursuit of modern military technology, including nuclear arms. At a post-summit news conference, he also spoke about China’s infrastructure control on the continent, its cyber presence, and its growing influence in the Arctic and Africa.
“China is not mentioned with one single word in the [2010] strategic concept,” the secretary-general said. “One of the main messages from this summit is that all allies recognize that the rise of China matters for our security.”
Nonetheless, some NATO members are taking a wait-and-see approach toward China.
“The view on China is quite balanced,” Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu said by phone from Bucharest on Tuesday.
“On the one hand, we mentioned the ambitions and the assertive behavior of China, which presents systemic challenges, but at the same time, we also mentioned that NATO maintains constructive dialogue,” he said.
Khara sees direct parallels to tactics used by Russia to intimidate NATO partners and China’s own desire to reconstitute an imperial sphere of influence.
“China used to be an empire, and then, it was conquered by the West,” he said. “That’s why their thinking is driven by two things: humiliation in the previous centuries and the greatness, let’s say modus operandi, with neighbors as [an] empire state with small states.”
He added: “What we see in the South China Sea is the same thing that we are experiencing here in the Azov Sea and the Black Sea.”
Russia’s use of hybrid warfare techniques, such as misinformation and propaganda, drives wedges between NATO allies and weakens the alliance, creating fractures that are more attuned to Russia’s security and political objectives.
China holds important ports and other infrastructure investments across Europe.
“China invests,” former Romanian National Security Council member George Scutaru said at a recent interview with the Washington Examiner in Bucharest.
Scutaru described China’s use of vaccine diplomacy, building a factory in Serbia that will by the fall distribute its coronavirus vaccine regionally. Also, a Chinese company owns the largest port in Greece, a NATO member.
The security analyst said Russia’s interests are oriented toward defense and geopolitics, whereas China’s moves are economic but have a military component.
“China’s growing influence and international policies present challenges to alliance security,” Stoltenberg said at the post-summit press conference. “Leaders agreed that we need to address such challenges together as an alliance and that we need to engage with China to defend our security interests.”
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Balancing economic interests with the alliance’ s security is a coming test for NATO, security analysts said.
“Prosperity and security goes hand by hand,” said Khara. “It’s impossible to preserve peace in the European continent if Russia behaves in such a way and it’s not stopped. … But for the United States, the most important thing is China, because China is studying Russian techniques and strategies.”
