On July 9, President Trump held a primetime event at the White House to announce he was nominating Brett Kavanaugh, a widely respected judge with impeccable credentials, to the U.S. Supreme Court. Just one week later, Trump embarrassed himself on the world stage by buckling next to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on the subject of Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
The two events, coming so closely to one another, are the perfect encapsulation of this presidency, representing a phenomenon which can be described as: Good Trump, Bad Trump.
To be clear, to a liberal, there is no such thing as “Good Trump,” as even when he is behaving as a relatively conventional conservative president might, he is advancing policies that they find abhorrent. But to those on the Right who want to advance a certain set of conservative ideas, the dichotomy is experienced on an almost daily basis.
Over the course of his presidency, Trump has taken many actions that have earned him the praise even of conservatives who opposed him in 2016: He has nominated strong judges; put together a generally conservative cabinet; advanced deregulation; cut taxes; defended gun rights and religious liberty; pursued pro-life policies; and pulled out of former President Barack Obama’s Iran deal.
While some on the right raised alarms about Kavanaugh being too much of a Washington insider, he is clearly well qualified and his judicial record is generally conservative. Trump did not, as some joked or feared, decide to tap some reality show star like Judge Judy or his pro-choice sister to the high court. Some of Kavanaugh’s decisions raise questions, but he’s far from reminiscent of David Souter. In choosing him, Trump took the job seriously, followed a sober process, and his team smoothly rolled out the nomination.
But despite some successes, Trump has demonstrated the same erratic behavior as he did during the campaign. He regularly lashes out on Twitter, has bumbled his way into a pointless escalating trade war, and has displayed a penchant for appeasing autocrats including Putin and Kim Jong Un. Scoffing at transparency, he has refused to release his tax returns, depriving the American people of the ability to assess any financial conflicts of interest facing their president.
For those conservatives who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Trump in 2016, but who have applauded some of his actions as president, the regular appearances of Bad Trump have made it impossible to come around and embrace Good Trump.
The Good Trump, Bad Trump split has presented a much more difficult problem for elected Republicans. They have been on a roller coaster since he won the Republican presidential nomination two years ago and effectively became the head of the party.
Republican politicians generally support Trump because they know that he is their only hope of moving forward on any of their priorities. They need him in place to nominate judges, sign the bills they can pass, and to use administrative discretion to advance their agenda when legislation is stalled. So, whenever Trump goes for any period of time without making some unforced error, they become more comfortable in their support. But that period can only last so long — as we saw with the disastrous Putin summit coming just a week after the successful Kavanaugh roll out.
Though Republicans broadly criticized Trump for his performance in Helsinki, when the dust clears, they’ll go back to supporting and defending him, because the same calculations apply as to why they support him in the first place.
One recent poll statistically demonstrates the dilemma facing Republicans ahead of this November’s midterm elections. A CBS News survey finds that while just 32 percent of Americans approved of Trump’s performance at Helsinki, support among Republicans was 68 percent — or more than double. While Republicans don’t want independents to flee, it’s also true that the party won’t be able to maintain control of Congress if it can’t motivate a base that is decidedly pro-Trump, even in cases where most Americans think he botched things.
The reality of Good Trump, Bad Trump is going to require Republicans already clinging to a fragile majority to perform a political pirouette this fall worthy of the Bolshoi.
