Labor Day weekend is often viewed as the kickoff of the fall presidential campaign, and this year, it finds President Trump with ground to make up.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads nationally and in most of the major battleground states. Whatever bounce Trump received from a successful Republican National Convention was modest and potentially short-lived. The coronavirus and the summer’s racial justice protests have taken a bite out of Trump’s approval rating, which has generally ranged in the low-to-mid 40s and peaked at 49% in March.
The risk for Trump is that Biden will consolidate the voters who disapprove of his performance in office and who constitute a small majority of the electorate. Quinnipiac recently showed Biden winning 52% nationally. CNN and Economist/YouGov polls had the former vice president at 51%.
But the degeneration of some racial justice protests into rioting, looting, and lawlessness has the potential to swing some voters back to Trump. The economic recovery could also pick up steam heading into the fall, vindicating Trump’s preference for reopening and making some voters wary of Biden bringing back the lockdowns. And operatives in both parties remain mindful of the surprising result four years ago, when things looked gloomy for Trump even late in the cycle.
“Tough to argue there are any good numbers for Trump right now,” said Democratic strategist Stefan Hankin. “Biden is up nationally by 7-plus points, and Trump hasn’t been ahead in a public poll since February. That being said, we don’t elect our president on a national vote, but Biden is up in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, the big three, and in states like Florida, Arizona, North Carolina.”
One question is whether voters largely made up their minds about Trump months ago or if the end of summer will see millions of people thinking seriously about the race with Biden for the first time. Three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate are also fast approaching.
Biden has been in the lead, but his campaign hasn’t been flawless. He has spent a lot of time in his basement in Delaware due to the pandemic. He remains gaffe-prone in his limited excursions on the campaign trail, calling attention to his age (he will turn 78 soon after the election). He has largely avoided tough media interviews. But the Democratic nominee has succeeded in keeping the focus on Trump, which has undeniably helped in the polls.
Trump needs the election to be less a referendum on himself than a binary choice between his preferred policies and the Democrats’. So far, he has been unable to do so. But Republicans haven’t given up hope.
“I felt originally, it was Biden’s to lose, but with the new jobless numbers in today, and the economy feeling better overall, it puts Republican policy over Trump’s personality,” said Republican strategist Noell Nikpour. “Trump is smart by focusing on Minnesota because that state could prove important to the GOP. With Biden’s lack of visibility, lackluster campaign style, and overall unenthusiastic performance, I feel Trump’s in-person campaigning fueled with his strong speech performances and upward economy will move the needle his way once again.”
If Trump goes down in November, Democrats could also recapture the Senate. If they heed the liberals who would like to see the filibuster eliminated, Biden plus a Democratic Congress would allow a slew of liberal policy priorities to become law.
If Trump’s poll numbers do not recover in the coming weeks, embattled GOP Senate incumbents will face a dilemma about whether to abandon the president. In 1996, Republicans cut flailing presidential nominee Bob Dole loose and urged swing voters not to give President Bill Clinton a “blank check” by also electing a Democratic Congress. But Trump is less likely than Dole to accept this treatment from his party.
“We have two months to go, and it is going to be ugly, but going into Labor Day, I don’t see how you argue anything other than Biden and [Kamala] Harris going into the homestretch in the lead,” Hankin said.
Still, Trump is an aggressive campaigner who can be expected to make a spirited push in the closing weeks of the presidential campaign in a highly unusual year.
“This election will be determined by voters’ answer to one simple question: Do you want four more years of Donald Trump’s version of America?” said a Republican consultant in Michigan.
