The Battle Born State is fighting for political capital, with Nevada Democrats aggressively jockeying to supplant Iowa and hold the first-in-the-nation presidential primary contest for the party.
Seizing on an expected opening for the No. 1 spot following the catastrophic 2020 Iowa caucuses, supporters of the initiative have sent brochures and letters to top party brass insisting Nevada is well suited as a benchmark to filter out weaker presidential contenders because it closely aligns with the party’s demographics and ethos.
“We’ve been saying for some time that as far as the Democratic Party is concerned, Nevada is really representative of who we are,” Tick Segerblom, commissioner of Clark County in Nevada, told the Washington Examiner. “We’re already one of the first four, so it wouldn’t take that much to change, particularly since Iowa seems to be really dropping [off] the radar.”
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Nevada Democrats have emphasized the state’s demographics, which are more closely mirrored to the national average than Iowa, with 73.9% of Nevada’s population being white, 10.3% black, and 8.7% Asian, per the census. About 29.2% of its population is Hispanic or Latino, according to the census. Iowa’s population is 90.6% white, 4.1% black, 2.7% Asian, and 6.3% Hispanic or Latino, while the national population is 76.3% white, 13.4% black, 5.9% Asian, and 18.5% Hispanic or Latino, per the census.
“One thing that the Democrats have really taken note of is that they can’t really take the Latino or Hispanic vote for granted because it actually swung a little bit more to the right in 2020,” Alex Diaz, a political analyst from Nevada, told the Washington Examiner. “This is where Nevada comes into play. You know, it’s a smaller media market.”
On Wednesday, the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee passed a resolution initiating an application system for states to vie for the top positions in the presidential primary process. This effectively means Iowa is no longer guaranteed the top spot it has held for decades.
Being the first stop for the presidential primary can give Nevada, which was third to the polls in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, outsize influence over the decision about who should be the next commander in chief. Being the top state would give it added pull in narrowing the field, funneling political money into the state and forcing contenders to pitch to its voters.
But the top state doesn’t always select the primary winner. President Joe Biden notably lost Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada and still managed to snag the nomination after a resurgence in South Carolina.
Iowa’s status as the leadoff state, which it first gained in 1972, has been subject to debate within the party for years, and even former DNC Chairman Tom Perez does not believe Iowa should have the top spot.
“A diverse state or states need to be first,” he said in early 2021. “The difference between going first and going third is really important. We know the importance of momentum in Democratic primaries.”
The state has seen dwindling support for its elite primary status due to the state’s recent rightward shift, compounded by logistical problems during the last election cycle that saw results delayed by nearly a week due to errors in reporting vote tallies.
“Our history of natural elections is impeccable. We have a great election system,” Segerblom touted in an apparent swipe at Iowa’s 2020 mayhem.
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Complicating matters are laws Iowa and No. 2 state New Hampshire have on the books requiring that they be at the top of the pack in the primary schedule, David Redlawsk, a political scientist at the University of Delaware, noted. If Democrats boot the Hawkeye State from its prime spot, it is unclear how that will play out, but Redlawsk suspects the state will struggle to force its will upon the party.
“It’s really been the case that certainly, from the 1980s forward, there have always been efforts to dethrone Iowa as first. And what mostly stopped it from happening was the lack of agreement on an alternative,” Redlawsk told the Washington Examiner. “Virtually every state would like to be first.”
Like Iowa, Nevada used to have a caucus, or an election in which voters attend in-person gatherings and typically voice their political preferences publicly, but the state ditched the system in favor of a standard primary election last year. Iowa, a small state by population, has held on to the caucus system, which has been a staple of its politics for decades.
Unlike Iowa, the Silver State is widely considered a purple state with a bluish hue — and a penchant for picking winners. With three exceptions, the state has voted for the candidate who ultimately won the presidency every time since 1904. Former President Donald Trump in 2016 was the most recent exception. Nevada Democrats argue this track record demonstrates that the state is a good calibrator for producing winning candidates.
Making the state the first presidential pit stop had long been a dream of legacy Democrat heavyweight and former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who died last year. But the party doesn’t necessarily need to choose a single state as its first stop.
“It’s not unreasonable to ask candidates to campaign in multiple states. They do it already,” Redlawsk noted. “You can learn a lot about candidates and their ability to build those campaigns. And for the Democrats or any political party, no one state actually represents the party.”
Last month, party leaders from the first four primary states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina — held a meeting at a Washington, D.C., Hilton, NBC reported. They reportedly informally agreed to refrain from aggressively jostling for the top spot until the DNC released its application framework, which the party leaders published Wednesday.
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At least one official accused Nevada Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen of breaching the informal truce by lobbying DNC members to favor Nevada roughly 12 hours after the Hilton meeting, the outlet reported. Top Democrats from other states were reportedly irked by the meeting and some of the pro-Nevada brochures distributed afterward.
Applications for states hoping to get early primary dates are reportedly due by early June. The committee is expected to issue a recommendation for a primary schedule in July, and the DNC will vote on it in August, the New York Times reported.
