DES MOINES — Recent reports here in Iowa suggest that Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain is having little trouble weathering accusations of sexual harassment dating from his time as head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s. On Monday, the Des Moines Register published an article, “Iowans appear ready to give Cain benefit of the doubt on sexual harassment allegations,” in which the paper got in touch with participants who supported Cain in a recent poll. “None said the allegations had moved them to reject Cain as a potential pick,” the paper reported. Other news organizations, following the Register’s lead, also suggested that Cain’s problems are not hurting him in Iowa.
There’s a good chance those assessments are wrong, or at least seriously premature. Talks with voters here in Iowa suggest two things. The first is that the still-sketchy details of the Cain controversy have not fully sunk in with people who are not following events in Washington moment-to-moment. And two, some voters’ continued approval of Cain is based on the condition that there be no more damaging revelations in the case and, indeed, that nothing else go wrong with his candidacy — a tough condition for Cain to meet, if the experience of the last week is any guide.
When asked whether she still supported Cain in spite of all the controversy about the harassment allegations, one woman in Fairfield, Iowa answered with two words: “For now.” If anything else comes out about Cain, she said, she’ll reassess her position. Other voters also suggested they would re-examine their support if more damaging details emerged. But they also said they are not following the case at every moment of the day and have not kept up with the most recent developments. Coming from another perspective, an Iowa man who started the day supporting Cain and declaring that “whoever is going to be running against Obama is going to be crucified,” later on Wednesday said he was reconsidering his support of Cain.
“The story is unfolding, and I think it would be premature for anybody to put a period after this one,” says one well-connected Iowa evangelical activist. “What Herman has to be concerned about is the evolving nature of his comments, meaning he’s gaining a bit of a track record. Negotiating for terrorists, abortion, and now, did you know about this settlement? If this story continues to grow, the last thing Herman Cain wants is for caucus-goers to go to the caucus on January 3 with more questions than answers about his ability to be president.”
“He needs to get to Iowa, and he needs to get to Iowa quick,” says another well-connected insider. “People need to vet the candidate and kick the tires and see him in person, and that need has only been heightened by these allegations.”
All that suggests the Des Moines Register re-survey of its poll respondents, done less than a day after the Cain story broke, was simply too early to give any definitive picture of Iowa GOP voters’ reaction to the matter. That’s also true for assessments right now, given the speed with which the Cain story is changing. Even with a well-informed electorate, things take a little time to sink in, and the Cain controversy is just now starting to sink in.
Another factor in Cain’s standing here in Iowa is the gap in his support between men and women. “Cain already has a gender gap among likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa,” writes Des Moines register columnist Kathie Obradovich. “Women prefer Mitt Romney over Cain, 27 percent to 17 percent, according to the Register’s Iowa Poll, released Saturday. Cain’s handling of these allegations, which leaves the door open for a steady drip of negative revelations, won’t help him win over female caucusgoers.”
One striking feature of the Cain campaign has been Cain’s ability to weather gaffes with little damage to his popularity. To some observers, Cain has seemed to defy the political law of gravity. But now, with Cain leading in many polls and at the same time he has been struggling to address the harassment allegations, that ability is being put to its toughest test. Talks here in Iowa suggest that he has already used up some of the good will Iowans naturally extend to candidates. For some of those voters inclined to support Cain, the feeling is: I still like him, but there better not be anything more.
