Hillary Clinton heads into Election Day with a nearly insurmountable lead in Nevada thanks to Democratic turnout in early voting.
Donald Trump faces a steep climb in the race for Nevada’s six Electoral College votes after a record-setting day of early voting in Clark County (Las Vegas), a Democratic stronghold and the state’s population center.
The results, as detailed by Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston, were fueled by a surge of Hispanic voters, who might have been extra-motivated to participate because of the Republican nominee’s hardline policies on legal and illegal immigration.
“Trump’s path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday,” Ralston wrote Saturday in a blog post. “But now he needs a miracle in Vegas on Election Day — and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely — to turn this around.”
The public polling averages show a close race in Nevada. Trump led Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of recent surveys, 46 percent to 44 percent. But Nevada can be notoriously difficult to poll and public surveys often miss the level of Hispanics voting for the Democrat.
There was such a mismatch in 2010, when public polls suggested Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., was on his way to defeat. Instead, he won handily. And that was in a midterm wave that swept Republicans to victory in Democratic-held seats across the country.
Friday was the last day of early voting in Nevada, and Democrats won the day in Clark County, to build their lead to more than 72,000, more than President Obama’s lead in the state after early voting concluded four years ago, Ralston reported. Obama went on to win Nevada by 7 percentage points.
A record 57,000 people voted in Clark County on Friday.
Statewide, the Democrats’ lead is just under 50,000, not quite as strong as Obama’s 2012 lead at this same point in 2012 but very close. Republican turnout during early voting was a slight under performance compared to four years ago; they’re running slightly behind in GOP-leaning Washoe County (Reno).
The Republicans are winning Nevada’s rural counties, as is typical.
Ralston estimates that Trump would have to beat Clinton by double digits in Election Day voting to have a chance to win Nevada, which he projects is highly unlikely, even though the New York businessman is making a final campaign stop in Reno on Saturday.
An example of the Hispanic surge was evident Friday at one early voting station at a Cardenas Market in Las Vegas. The tally for the day from this one site broke down accordingly: 1,904 votes cast; 1,258 Democrats (66 percent); 165 Republicans (9 percent); 481 independents (25 percent.)
“I’m not sure the Trump campaign can overcome” Clinton’s early vote advantage, a Republican operative based in Nevada conceded.
