President Trump’s 2016 victory in Ohio represented one of the largest Democratic-to-Republican swings in recent political history — but Joe Biden thinks he can win it back.
During a closed press meeting on Friday, Biden campaign officials offered an Electoral College prediction, confidently declaring that the former vice president and now presumptive 2020 Democratic nominee could win 318 votes on Election Day. That would give the 36-year Delaware senator a comfortable win over Trump, well above the 270 needed to earn the White House keys.
“The single biggest driver in terms of turnout and enthusiasm is actually going to be the percentage of people who have very favorable, very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump,” said Biden senior strategist Mike Donilon.
The campaign also announced that it was hiring an additional 600 staffers in battleground states to help with organizing and get-out-the-vote efforts, despite questions about how the coronavirus epidemic will impact traditional campaigning.
Ohio, with its 18 electoral votes, has long been a key prize in presidential politics. The Buckeye State effectively gave President George W. Bush his reelection win in 2004. President Barack Obama won Ohio in 2008 and 2012 before it backed Trump in 2016 by more than 8 points. No Democrat had won the state with more than 50% of the vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
But the Biden campaign believes Trump’s low favorability ratings nationwide could put the state back in the blue column, particularly as it tries to make the November election a “referendum” on his handling of the coronavirus.
“My best guess is that if the election was today, Trump would win Ohio but by less than last time. The Democrats have some room to grow in some suburban places, and turnout could also get better for them,” said University of Virginia elections analyst Kyle Kondik.
“On the other hand, Trump may have room to grow in the small town/rural areas where he performed so well last time,” said Kondik, author of The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President. “A key for Democrats is to hold down Trump’s rural margins better than Clinton did.”
An Emerson College poll of voters in the state taken earlier this month found Trump with a lead of three points over Biden at 46%. Eleven percent of voters in the state remained undecided or don’t plan on supporting either candidate. Trump won Ohio in 2016, with 51.69% of the vote.
That same poll found Biden suffering from the same enthusiasm gap that he sees in a number of swing states, with 70% of Trump supporters saying they’re excited to vote for him in November and only 39% of Biden supporters saying the same.
Other polls, taken in March or last fall and summer, had Biden leading anywhere from 4 to 8 points, with Trump’s support as low as 42%.
“Donald Trump has visited Ohio several times as president. He’s not coming here to vacation. The Trump campaign understands Ohio is a must-win state for Trump,” said University of Akron political scientist David Cohen.
“If he loses Ohio, the electoral math falls apart, and there is really not a path for him to win,” Cohen told the Washington Examiner.
Cohen pointed to Sen. Sherrod Brown’s reelection in 2018, when he won 53.4% of the vote over his Republican challenger, then-Rep. Jim Renacci. Brown endorsed Biden in April after Biden had sewn up the Democratic nomination.
Republicans, however, believe Trump’s populist message is expected to resonate once again with Rust Belt voters. Unlike Brown, whose working-class bona fides are rarely questioned, even by Republicans, the GOP believes it can paint Biden as a member of the Washington establishment.
“Donald Trump’s campaign has been contacting and organizing voters in Ohio for four straight years, building up an army of volunteers to win on Election Day,” said Trump Victory spokesman Rick Gorka. “Joe Biden is delusional if he has the chance and message to flip Ohio, from his record on China to his position on fossil fuels. We’re going to beat him like a drum, just like we beat Hillary in 2016.”
