A military buildup in Libya now pits Syrian mercenaries on both sides of the battle — with one faction using high-end Russian weaponry against the U.S.-supported government.
U.S. Africa Command recently confirmed that Russian military contractor Wagner Group had employed 2,000 Syrian mercenaries to bolster opposition strongman Khalifa Haftar’s position in eastern Libya, while NATO ally Turkey recruited another 5,000 Syrians to fight on behalf of the Tripoli government.
“We have watched the uptick since last fall of Russia capabilities and Russian troops,” AFRICOM Deputy Director of Intelligence Rear Adm. Heidi Berg told journalists on a media call from command headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany.
Since late 2019, Russia has denied any relationship with the Wagner Group despite numerous links to Moscow, including more than a dozen fourth-generation MiG-29 fighters and Su-24s fighter jets stealthily transferred to a desert airbase in May.
Berg said Russia has also made more than 338 deliveries with Russian IL- 76 transport cargo planes laden with equipment, supplies, fuel, ammunition, and weapons in the past nine months.
“We’re estimating that Wagner Group is about 3,000 in Libya and they sent 2,000 Syrian mercenaries that they recruited in Syria and brought over to Libya,” she said. “Clearly, they’re operating to promote Moscow goals and objectives, and it is very likely that there would be a Russian military presence as well in Libya.”
Russian aims on the southern Mediterranean are both political and economic, Berg explained, noting the opportunity for lucrative oil contracts and a favorable government.
“They see this as a potential lucrative source of raw material and resources,” the intelligence officer said.
The perch on NATO’s southern border would also be a valuable victory for Moscow.
“Whether that would be simply military access or whether that would be actual military basing is certainly something that would fall within the construct of what Russia would want to achieve,” Berg assessed.
“Concern of miscalculation”
In May, AFRICOM released imagery of Russian MiG-25 aircraft being flown to the al Jufra airbase controlled by the opposition Libyan National Army. The fighter jets first stopped in Syria, where their identifying markings were painted over to conceal their Russian origin.
AFRICOM confirmed to the Washington Examiner that Russian military pilots are not in the cockpits. That lack of training may have led to two crashes (one on June 28 and one on Monday) and may result in hasty strikes.
“These fighters are engaging in combat activities. We have seen them conduct ground strikes,” she said. “They are not there for training the Libyan National Army. They are not there to simply support the LNH. They are there to conduct combat activities on behalf of their own national interests.”
Among the weapons AFRICOM said Russia has brought into Libya is the Pantsir SA-22 air defense system, which Berg said was responsible for shooting down an Italian MQ-9 and an American MQ-9 drone.
Berg denied prior reports that the more advanced S-300 or S-400 systems are present in Libya.
The use of the air defense system and mercenary pilots are recipes for unintended consequences, Berg said.
“It reflects an inability to effectively operate these systems and be able to maintain control of their air defense picture as well as to effectively target and positively identify aircraft before firing,” he said. “[That] raises the concern of miscalculation.”
Wagner has also declared no-fly zones over international waters and international airspace, demonstrating a desire to stake out control of wide swaths of territory.
In the complex proxy war that is growing in North Africa, AFRICOM affirmed that other nations are building up their support for the opposition.
Among them is U.S. ally Egypt, which has surface ships off the western coast and is poised to enter if its interests are threatened.
The United Arab Emirates, celebrated of late by the United States for establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, is also operating contrary to U.S. interests in Libya.
“We do know that it has not just been financial support,” Berg said of Emirati support for the LNA. “Arms, weapons, as well as some direct air support that they provided.”
Meanwhile, NATO ally Turkey has dismissed international pressure to stay out of the conflict by continuing its presence on behalf of the Tripoli government.
Berg noted that political discussions for a lasting peace are ongoing but that military buildup continues unabated.
“This is AFRICOM, and we’re always looking forward to quiet,” she said. “The principal combatants appear to be supporting and engaging in peace negotiations or looking for that political solution.”
