Glenn Youngkin’s big win in Virginia has some Republican insiders scrambling to figure out how the governor-elect’s assertive yet inoffensive style on the stump applies to party efforts to reclaim the White House.
Youngkin recovered ground Republicans lost in the suburbs under former President Donald Trump without losing conservative base voters in rural communities. Party elders are hoping to replicate the governor-elect’s success in races across the country in next year’s midterm elections — and ultimately in the 2024 presidential contest. To do so, they need a candidate equipped to play Youngkin-style politics and who can survive a primary and hold the GOP coalition together in a general election.
“I think it’s less one person but more of a persona,” a Republican operative said. “In no way did Youngkin resemble Trump. He reminded me of a guy who approves my expense reports. That’s the first step to all of this. When Terry McAuliffe accused him of being Trump, it didn’t pass the smell test.”
Youngkin, 54, a career private equity investor, defeated McAuliffe, 64, the former governor, in Tuesday’s elections. He was leading by 2.5 percentage points with most precincts reporting in a state President Joe Biden won by more than 10 points one year ago and that had not elected a Republican governor since 2009. Youngkin’s victory was built on two key pillars.
He was acceptable to traditional Republicans and swing voters, many of whom were uncomfortable with Trump and supported Biden in Virginia last November. Youngkin capitalized on their willingness to consider voting for him by speaking to their anxiety about the economy and frustration with public schools. But just as importantly, Youngkin harnessed the support of grassroots Republicans who revere the 45th president. They voted for the governor-elect in droves.
TRUCK DRIVER EDWARD DURR DETHRONES DEMOCRATIC NEW JERSEY SENATE PRESIDENT
In CNN exit polling, Youngkin won 97% of the GOP vote, 54% of independents, 93% of self-described conservatives, and just under 40% of centrists. Crucially, the governor-elect won the suburbs, garnering 53%, and dominated in small cities and rural enclaves with 63%. In the Trump era, white voters with college degrees have drifted from the GOP, yet Youngkin came close to splitting their support with McAuliffe, receiving 47%.
Meanwhile, the rural vote Trump juiced in 2016 and 2020 showed up in big numbers and delivered 76% of their support to the governor-elect.
“What Youngkin was able to pull off with regard to the Trump issue was nothing short of a miracle,” Republican strategist Jim Dornan said. “Can that model be replicated in the presidential race in 2024? Possibly.”
If Trump runs in 2024, the discussion of applying the Youngkin model to the party’s presidential nominee would be moot.
The polarizing former president is unlikely to make any adjustments to his provocative style and could overwhelm primary competitors who try, just as he did in 2016. Then, as now, voters were attracted to Trump because he cultivated the image of “a fighter” and effectively communicated to GOP primary voters that he would fight for them — against anyone, Democrat or Republican, politicians or the media, even a random man or woman on the street.
But if Trump chooses not to run, the 2024 primary campaign begins as a jump ball, and Youngkin’s “happy warrior” approach makes the contest more viable.
Some of the Republicans mentioned as potential presidential contenders would appear to be a better fit for adopting this strategy than would others, among them Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, former United States ambassador to the United Nations and ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“Oddly enough, I think it could be Pence,” said a Republican strategist headquartered in the Midwest, near the former vice president’s home state of Indiana. “He is best positioned to say what voters open to a right-of-center candidate consistently say they want: someone who will do what Trump did on policy without the harmful rhetoric.”
Unknown is whether the Youngkin model would work in the context of a presidential campaign.
