What’s the matter with Jeb Bush? The establishment favorite and frontrunner in the fundraising primary can’t seem to catch a break. Bush’s performance in the August 6 debate in Cleveland was judged as mediocre at best. He’s dropped to number two in New Hampshire and is tied for sixth place in Iowa. All this as rival Donald Trump sits atop the national polls as well as those in the early primary states.
And that may be Bush’s biggest problem: in a name, Trump. At a rally in New Hampshire last week, Trump had harsh words for the former Florida governor. “I don’t see how he’s electable,” Trump said. “Jeb Bush is a low-energy person. For him to get things done is hard. He’s very low energy.”
It was a one-two shot at Bush’s perceived strength—his viability in a general election—and his most glaring weaknesses. “Low-energy” is a devastating critique coming from the most high-energy candidate on either side of the aisle. Bush’s own effort to push back against Trump seemed to confirm the insult.
“Mr. Trump doesn’t have a proven conservative record,” Bush said at his town hall, adding that Trump has “talent” but warning that the New York real-estate magnate’s immigration rhetoric is “pretty vitriolic, for sure.” It was polite and staid and really boring.
Trumpmania was supposed to help Bush by drawing away support from the other conservatives in the race and making the former Florida governor appear to be the reasonable alternative or even the savior from certain general-election doom. That’s certainly how the Bush campaign saw it. In the early part of August, the New York Times reported that Bush’s camp was meeting Trump’s rise in the polls “with barely concealed delight.” Trump’s presence, the Times’s Jonathan Martin wrote, “mainly helps Mr. Bush, who can quietly continue to build his daunting advantages in money and organization while his would-be challengers struggle to break through.”
Perhaps, but observe what’s happened in the past month. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina have all seen their poll numbers rise, while Scott Walker, another “acceptable” Republican, has stalled out. The Trump phenomenon seems to have opened up a market for anti-establishment, non-politician candidates, and no one represents the Republican establishment better than Bush. Rather than build on his structural advantages, Bush has had to deal with sharing “frontrunner” status with Trump and the head-to-head comparisons that come with it.
This ought to be an ideal situation for Bush. As one pro-Bush consultant told Politico, “It’s going to come down to Trump v. Somebody and Jeb is the somebody.” But the primaries don’t start next week. What if Republican voters, still evaluating the bloated field of Republican candidates, come away from a few weeks of “Trump v. Bush” and find they agree with Trump’s assessment of Bush? After all, if the party’s base is so sickened of the establishment that it’s willing to consider a relatively liberal, loudmouth reality TV star, GOP voters may not be ready to swallow a third Bush pill—especially when there are other “plausible” choices (unlike the last Republican primary) that both the rank-and-file and the establishment could get behind.
Bush World seems to recognize something is amiss and is pushing back. Politico reports that the pro-Bush super PAC Right to Rise is already sending out mailers to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Right to Rise has also made a “significant” eight-figure TV ad buy in New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina, starting in mid-September. “We have a long-term strategy and are in the strongest position for a sustained and independent effort to support Jeb Bush,” Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the super PAC, tells THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
Some Republican insiders question whether Bush’s organization is making all the right calls. One veteran GOP strategist not working for a presidential campaign says he was baffled by the PAC’s decision not to run TV ads earlier. And Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator who lives in New Hampshire, says Bush doesn’t appear to be making enough effort in the Granite State. “He hasn’t spent enough time in New Hampshire,” Brown told TWS. “I don’t see him too much.” The Bush campaign says the candidate has spent 17 days in New Hampshire since the start of the year, including 9 since entering the race on June 15. That averages out to about one day a week in New Hampshire.
But the root of Jeb Bush’s problem may not be spending too little time on the trail or running too few ads. As Trump has helped reveal, Bush may not be the candidate Republicans, excited and energized to take back the White House in 2016, are looking for.
