Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by four percentage points in a new poll of the traditionally Republican Arizona.
Clinton’s four-percentage-point advantage, 46.5-42.2, in OH Predictive Insights’ survey of 1,060 likely voters gives Democrats hope of an upset in the state.
No Democratic presidential nominee has won the Grand Canyon State since 1996 when President Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole, the only GOP presidential nominee to endorse Trump. In 2012, Mitt Romney beat President Obama in the state by 10 points.
“Clinton held a healthy 12-point advantage over Trump when it came to female respondents,” said Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights chief pollster, in a statement explaining Clinton’s lead. “However, it’s very surprising to think that Hillary Clinton may carry Arizona, a state that holds the narratives of SB 1070, two nationally known anti-illegal immigration sheriffs, liberal gun laws and consistently conservative constituents.”
Arizona enacted SB 1070 in 2010, which was legislation that added state penalties to immigration law enforcement and sparked controversy with the Obama administration Justice Department.
Were Clinton to win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, she could lose the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina and still win the presidency.
Democrats hold no statewide offices in Arizona, and a Clinton victory would likely require Republican and conservative support. In the poll released on Wednesday, Clinton earned the support of 12.9 percentage points of Republicans.
OH Predictive Insights conducted its automated survey on June 20. Its results have a three-percentage-point margin of error.
