Yesterday’s Washington Post polling article included some comparisons between Washington Post surveys on the Bush/Kerry race in June 2004 and the paper’s most recent survey on the McCain/Obama contest. For example, the 2004 survey found Democratic Senator John Kerry leading President Bush in June by six points (48 percent to 42 percent). The June 2008 numbers show Barack Obama leading John McCain by exactly the same six-point margin (48 percent to 42 percent). The June 2008 survey also reports the results of several critical candidate characteristics, such as who would be a strong leader, who better represents your values, and who is more trustworthy on domestic and foreign policy questions. I have compared these 2008 results to the Bush/Kerry results of four years ago. As the Post and others have noted, these numbers are probably more important at this stage of the election than the head-to-head horserace results. Senator McCain also does better than President Bush on a couple of measures. For example, in June 2004, Bush and Kerry were essentially tied on the issue of fighting terrorism (Bush 48 percent/Kerry 47 percent). Today, McCain leads Obama by 14 points (53 percent to 39 percent). Bush also trailed Kerry on the question of taxes by 12 points. In June 2008, McCain closes that gap to eight. The spread between McCain and Obama on issues such as Iraq (McCain by 1 point) and healthcare (Obama by 20 points) are the same as between Bush and Kerry in 2004 (Bush by 2 points on Iraq; Kerry by 18 points on healthcare). It’s important to note that Bush closed the gap between himself and Senator Kerry on many issues, including terrorism, health care, taxes, and education, between the June and July 2004 Washington Post polls. Not surprisingly, the presumptive Republican nominee in 2008 trails his opponent more on the economy than President Bush did in 2004. Senator Kerry held a five-point edge when it came to trust on the economy. Senator Obama leads his Republican rival by 16 points (52 percent to 36 percent). McCain also slumps on the question of who “represents your own personal values.” In 2004, Kerry and Bush were essentially tied on this question (Kerry led by 2 points). Today Senator Obama leads by 13 points (51 percent to 38 percent). The most troubling numbers, however, for McCain at this point in the campaign could be the gap in “enthusiasm.” Yesterday’s Post story notes the current differences. I looked at a July 2004 Washington Post poll and constructed this table:
| Supporters Who Are “Very” or “Somewhat” Enthusiastic |
Supporters Who Are “Very” Enthusiastic |
|
| Bush | 90% | 50% |
| Kerry | 85% | 34% |
| McCain | 73% | 17% |
| Obama | 91% | 54% |
Source: June 2004, 2008 Washington Post Polls Part of this gap results from lingering Republican-base indifference toward Senator McCain. He was not the “first choice” of many in this group, but he now has solid support among self-identified GOP voters. McCain needs to excite his supporters a little more to ensure GOP turnout competes with a potential Obama wave. My hunch is that McCain enthusiasm will build following the conventions. Nothing drives Republican enthusiasm like the prospect of electing the most liberal president in a generation.
