Tropical Storm Dorian threat to Florida ‘increasing’ as system nears Puerto Rico

The storm, roughly 400 miles away from Puerto Rico, has maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour and is moving west-northwest at 13 miles per hour, according to the latest National Hurricane Center advisory.

Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory of roughly 3.2 million Americans, is still recovering from the devastation caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017. After Irma passed north of Puerto Rico, causing major damage, Maria slammed the island as a Category 4 hurricane. It became one of the deadliest natural disasters in U.S. history, blamed for roughly 3,000 deaths. Recovery efforts, which include rebuilding the power grid that was destroyed by Maria, have been hindered by poor infrastructure, political turmoil, and economic woes.

Gov. Wanda Vázquez Garced, less than a month into her tenure, declared a state of emergency Monday evening, and emergency shelters are being prepared for tens of thousands of people.

“I want everyone to feel calm,” Wanda Vázquez said. “Agency heads have prepared for the past two years. The experience of Maria has been a great lesson for everyone.”

Heavy rain, flash flooding, strong winds, and rough surf are all possible. Forecasters predict between 4-8 inches of rain in some areas of Puerto Rico and wind gusts up to 80 mph.

In a tweet Tuesday, President Trump tweeted about the coming of “yet another big storm” to Puerto Rico and said Congress approved $92 billion in disaster aide last year. “[A]n all time record of its kind for ‘anywhere,'” he said.

But critics and fact-checkers were quick to point out that federal data show Congress has only so far allocated roughly $43 billion for Puerto Rico and the island only received less than $14 billion as of May.

The track Dorian takes may be significant for Florida, where the storm could arrive over the weekend.

Should Dorian make landfall over the Dominican Republic and travel northwest across the country, it will weaken significantly. But if Dorian tracks farther to the east and brushes past Puerto Rico, spending more time over water, the storm will be able to recover more quickly.

From there, weather models predict Dorian will rebuild as it moves along the Bahamas island chain, possibly reaching hurricane strength. A tropical storm reaches Category 1 hurricane status when it gets to 74 mph maximum sustained winds, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

In a forecast discussion, the National Hurricane Center said, “The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.”

But the agency also issued a word of caution against getting too worried just yet. “Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles,” the NHC said.

Still, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced on Monday he has been briefed by emergency officials and urged residents on the east coast of Florida to prepare and keep an eye on the forecast.

Dorian is the fourth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30.