Sometimes graphs convey a message more powerfully than words. University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist Charles Franklin recently posted this plot of the “most important problem”–comparing the economy to the Iraq war. The visual representation of CBS News survey data is pretty dramatic. Both issues bumped along in tandem until 2006, when the war in Iraq became the dominant issue by a wide margin. In 2007, as the situation in Iraq improved, the number of Americans considering the war the most important issue declined. Yet in 2008, opinion shifted again. The number considering the war the most critical concern continued to ease, but when the economy slowed and the credit crunch emerged, the number of people choosing the economy as the most important problem shot up sharply.
Political strategists and pundits need to pay careful attention to several issues raised in the chart. First, the issue matrix can always shift swiftly and dramatically. With the election seven months away, it might shift again. Second, without an incumbent president seeking reelection, will voters “blame” Republicans for the slowing economy? Or, will the bipartisan economic stimulus bill Congress passed and the President signed earlier this year kick in and reverse these numbers again? And finally, what about Congress? Will historically low approval numbers help Republicans chip away at the Democratic majority’s current margin? And how will these concerns about the economy impact House and Senate races? Based on the shifts demonstrated in this chart, seven months is a lifetime in politics. We may go through at least a couple more political “decades” between now and November.
