High-profile disaffected Republicans who oppose President Trump are not only voicing their discontent and support for Joe Biden but forming political operations on the bet that Republican voters in key swing states feel the same way.
The ultimate goal is to emulate the 1980 “Reagan Democrats” movement of largely working-class Rust Belt voters that helped put the Republican president in the White House.
But while there is some 2016 Trump voter appetite for turning away from him this year, the trouble for the Republican organizers hoping to create a “Biden Republicans” effect is that the electorate doesn’t operate in the same way as it did 40 years ago, and the Democratic presidential nominee does not generate enthusiasm in the way Ronald Reagan did.
Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who stayed in the 2016 Republican presidential primary long past the point of being able to win it due to his opposition to Trump, has reportedly been asked to speak at the Democratic National Convention in support of Biden. Biden himself has teased that high-profile Republicans are organizing to support him in the election.
A number of outside political committees are focusing on building up Never Trump sentiment among Republican voters, the most recognizable of which is the Lincoln Project, a PAC known for its widely circulated social media videos and high-profile founders, such as former Republican consultant Rick Wilson and George Conway, husband of Trump counselor Kellyanne Conway.
Polls show that there is room for the anti-Trump movements to have a meaningful electoral effect among those who voted for the president in 2016 and those who identify as Republicans.
June New York Times/Sienna College polls found that 86% of swing-state voters who cast a ballot for Trump in 2016 intend to do so again, but 6% said that there is “not really any chance” of them supporting Trump, and another 2% said that they don’t support Trump but are not sure whether they would vote for him this year.
In Rust Belt swing states, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, that Trump won by razor-thin margins in 2016, that 6%-8% portion of voters turning away from him could tip the Electoral College to Biden.
An Economist/YouGov national poll conducted from Sunday through Tuesday found that 7% of Republicans said that they intended to vote for Biden.
But for all the money and attention being poured into anti-Trump Republicans, it’s unlikely they can recreate a movement that looks like that of Reagan Democrats.
“I don’t see much of a parallel between the Reagan Democrat phenomenon and possible Republican support for Biden,” said Julio Borquez, a political science professor at the University of Michigan-Dearborn who has studied the Reagan Democrat phenomenon. “A polarized environment defined by negative partisanship stands in the way of Republican voters supporting Biden in the same way some Democrats supported Reagan in the 1980s.”
Democrats who voted for Ronald Reagan were not merely independents who voted for one party in 1976 and another one in 1980, but people who actively identified with a political party, he explained. The political climate was notably different, and “defection from Democratic Party allegiance was more of a possibility,” Borquez said.
Some Democrats at the time veered toward Reagan because of dissatisfaction with President Jimmy Carter’s handling of the presidency, but that is not necessarily an indication that the Never Trump sentiment will allow disaffected Republicans to emulate the Reagan Democrat movement.
“Voting for Reagan was not simply a vote of no confidence in Carter or Mondale or the Democratic Party overall,” Borquez said. “But the vote for Reagan was very much about Reagan as a leader and not about policy.”
In essence, the personality of the challenging candidate is a major factor, and Biden does not necessarily elicit a Reagan-like aura of leadership capacity. Numerous polls show that Biden supporters are more enthusiastic about voting against Trump than voting for the Democratic former vice president.
“Biden is not Reagan,” Borquez said. “It’s hard to pinpoint Biden’s defining features. Except that he’s not Trump.”
The personality difference, plus the increased polarization of political parties, makes it difficult for anti-Trump Republicans to emulate the 1980 movement.
“Reagan Democrats weren’t holding their noses when they voted for him. Any Republicans who vote for Biden in 2020 probably will be holding their noses,” Borquez said.
Data remains that indicates Republican defectors and 2016 Trump voters who won’t vote for him again in 2020 could have a big effect on the election — but perhaps it is more accurately described as a remaining Never Trump or anti-Trump effect rather than a “Biden Republican” one.
