In the wake of the failed Syrian cease-fire and the absence of a “Plan B” from the Obama administration, experts say it’s time for the U.S. to impose tough new sanctions on both Syria and Russia to finally stop the bloodshed and deepening humanitarian crisis in the war-torn country.
Republicans have been pushing for a vote on new sanctions legislation, and President Obama has clearly resisted, going so far as to pressure Democrats this month to withdraw their support for a bipartisan bill that would easily pass in the House.
But while the White House says there are already sanctions in place, Syria experts say a new wave of measures is needed to pressure Syrian President Bashar Assad at a time when he is weak, a strategy that could help tip the scales in the more than five-year conflict.
“From talking to people on the ground, the Syrian forces are weak, they don’t have proper supplies and can’t seem to hold ground … being able to put pressure on Iran and Russia is actually key,” Hossam Abouzahr, a Syria expert at the Atlantic Council, told the Washington Examiner. “The way the fight stands right now it will be really difficult to end without doing so.”
The U.S. has imposed sanctions against the Syrian government for years, and they are mostly aimed at barring Americans from financial or commercial deal with Syria. But those sanctions really didn’t have much of an impact, experts say, because the Assad regime or his supporters were more isolated from the U.S. than other Middle Eastern countries and didn’t engage in much commerce with Americans in the first place.
“Coming into 2011, the U.S already had a number of sanctions in place on Syria and there’s wasn’t considerable exposure to the U.S.,” Katherine Bauer, a former Treasury Department official who now serves as a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in an interview.
The new bipartisan plan in the House, sponsored by the top Republican and Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is focused on weakening the military supply chain in Syria by targeting Syria’s energy and telecommunications and transportation sectors. It specifically targets any entity supplying military aircraft or spare parts to Syria’s air force, which is old.
Those efforts would ultimately impact Russian and Iranian entities, which have are increasingly propping up Assad’s military, which in Russia’s case means sending in their own jets and bombers.
“The proposed legislation would expand the scope of existing measures, including going after the military supply chain, which has the possibility to apply to Assad’s key supporters – Russia and Iran,” Bauer said.
Republicans are clearly on board. Over the last several days, Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., has tried to ratchet up the pressure on Obama to stop pressuring Democrats to abandon the bipartisan bill to sanction the Syrian regime.
“I think that this administration is essentially protecting some of the world’s worst war criminals,” Ryan said. “That’s why I am calling on the White House to allow House Democrats to work with us to pass these sanctions in short order.”
“So what’s the excuse now?” Ryan pressed. “The president’s strategy in Syria has been an abysmal failure. He should change course and help us enact this bill.”
For now, Republicans are dealing with Democrats who seem willing to give the Obama administration more time. Even so, the White House and State Department haven’t offered much when asked about next steps, now that its hopes for a U.S.-Russia brokered cease-fire have fallen apart.
As of this week, the administration’s plan appears to be to cling to the hope that a diplomatically negotiated cease-fire can still be agreed to stop the bombing campaign in and around Aleppo. Officials have held to the line that there’s no military answer, and haven’t spoken openly about tougher sanctions.
“We’re still committed to pursuing a diplomatic process, because … it’s the only viable way out of the mess that is Syria,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Monday.
The diplomatic route appears to be bleak. The U.S. has been blaming Russia for months for failing to adhere to a cease-fire struck at the start of the year, and the new one fell apart just hours after it was due to take effect. An airstrike hit a humanitarian aid convoy on the first day, and U.S. officials immediately blamed Russia, it’s negotiating partner.
And when asked about new sanctions, the White House said it’s not in favor of this plan over fears it would make the diplomatic route even more difficult than it already is. The White House is also wary of maintaining a partnership and not going it alone when it comes to sanctions.
“The concern we have with the current congressional proposal that’s being debated is that it would make these sanctions essentially unilaterally…” said White House spokesman Josh Earnest. “The sanctions tool is more effectively used when it is deployed in close coordination with our allies and partners around the world.”
Earnest also pointed to the case the U.S. is making to the United Nations Security Council this week on the importance for the international community to speak “with one voice in condemning” the brutal bombings of civilians and humanitarian relief workers by the Russian military supporting Assad.
“We continue to be focused on trying to work closely with the U.N. to facilitate some kind of transition inside of Syria that would address the root causes of all of this chaos,” Earnest said Tuesday. “That work continues.”
As the bombs continue to fall, the Obama administration has tried one new stepped-up approach: throwing more money at the problem. The State Department Tuesday announced that it is providing an additional $364 million in humanitarian assistance to Syria, bringing U.S. humanitarian assistance in response to the conflict to more than $5.9 billion.
