Europe is in the throes of a late-autumn heat wave that is expected to continue through most, if not all, of November. And it’s easing pressure on gas stocks at a critical moment for the European Union as it braces for its first winter without Russian fossil fuels.
Europe’s warmer-than-expected weather reached a late October peak, with temperatures soaring as high as 35 degrees above normal — weather that more closely resembled summer than that of late fall.
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Record-high October temperatures were shattered everywhere from Scandinavia to Spain, with the latter seeing highs in the mid-90s. (France, Belgium, and parts of Germany all broke records for their warm temperatures as well.)
London meteorologist Scott Duncan noted on Twitter that temperatures more closely resembled those seen “in late August or early September.”
“We have never observed warmth like this in Europe so late in the year,” he said.
Now, long-range weather outlooks from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and Maxar Technologies predict that these mild, warmer-than-usual temperatures will stretch through at least the first half of November, as well. That will help EU leaders preserve their precious-limited gas supplies before winter, offering consumers a welcome near-term reprieve from soaring energy costs.
“We see the winter as being warmer than usual,” Copernicus Climate Change Director Carlo Buontempo told Agence France-Presse.
Europe is likely to see “strong above-normal” temperatures through early November, Maxar said in its forecast, with mild autumn weather expected to persist through the end of the month.
Though forecasters say it’s too early to tell when temperatures will eventually fall in line with traditional averages seen in Europe this time of year, they also do not expect this winter to bring significant cold outbreaks or polar vortexes more in line with chillier winter seasons.
And that’s good news from an energy-saving perspective: “Certainly, the mild temperatures should be a welcome sign [for the EU], particularly in the first half of November,” Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at Maxar, said in an interview.
The mild weather has also contributed to a steep drop in gas demand. EU natural gas demand fell by a whopping 24% in October compared to the five-year average, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services. In September, demand also fell by 14% compared to the same period.
Altogether, the bloc is in a stronger-than-expected position this winter, and gas storage appears more secure than ever. Countries in the bloc have filled their storage tanks to 95% capacity so far, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe — exceeding pre-winter targets set earlier this summer by the EU.
And Germany, which previously relied on Russia for roughly half its natural gas supply, has filled its tanks to an even-higher 99% capacity.
In fact, Europe’s gas storage tanks are so full at the moment that some buyers are choosing to either sell or store some of their gas supplies in Ukraine — a risky strategy that would have been unthinkable just months earlier.
For buyers, the thinking with this oversupply is that “there’s no way to consume gas, storage is full. What we’re going to do is book some storage in Ukraine and run the geopolitical risks that come with that,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, the head of gas analytics at ICIS.
The mild weather has also contributed to a drop in European gas prices. Benchmark futures for Dutch TTF, the European natural gas benchmark, recently dropped below $113 per megawatt-hour for the first time since Russia began throttling its gas deliveries to Europe this summer.
Natural gas prices fell by a whopping 70% from the all-time high seen in August when the Dutch TTF soared above $300 per megawatt-hour and touched off deep fears of an affordability crisis within the bloc.
“I think we’ve come into the winter in a really strong position, considering where we were four or five months ago as a continent,” Marzec-Manser said.
But that’s not to say the EU is out of the woods yet.
“I consider what we’re seeing right now [to be] a short-term blip,” Marzec-Manser said.
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Even if the weather remains warmer than usual, “by the time you get to the end of November, or certainly December, ‘warmer than normal’ is still cold enough to induce heating demand for some residential users.”
Eventually, heating demand will kick in, he noted. “So I think the possibility of weakness, continued weakness going through the remainder of winter for the next four months or so, is quite plausible.”
