Top House Republicans are warning complacent incumbents that there’s no such thing as a safe red seat after Democrat Conor Lamb upset Republican Rick Saccone in a Pennsylvania district President Trump won by 20 points.
Vulnerable Republicans in battlegrounds seats aren’t the party’s main concern eight months before a midterm election shaping up as backlash against Trump. Those incumbents are perennial targets and conditioned to work hard to win re-election.
Rather, Republican leaders are worried about a dozen or so untested members with a history of coasting in presumably solid conservative territory, similar to Southwest Pennsylvania’s 18th District, in part because they’ve never run in a toxic environment.
“Candidates who have never been through tough races have a hard time understanding what it is like and usually don’t understand until it is too late,” Liesl Hickey, former executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told the Washington Examiner. “There are a lot of unprepared candidates who are sitting ducks right now and don’t even know it.”
Lamb led Saccone by a few hundred votes with all precincts and absentee ballots reporting late Wednesday in the special election to replace scandal-marred Republican Tim Murphy, although the race had yet to be officially called. But even if Saccone ends up winning by a nose, Republicans say the outcome should drive home just how inhospitable the atmosphere is for the party nationally.
Republican leaders universally panned Saccone from the outset, complaining that he fielded a weak campaign and couldn’t raise money. In this climate, against a strong Democratic opponent, that can lead to defeat, even in a traditionally GOP seat that strongly supported Trump in 2016. Republicans fret there are more Saccones in their ranks. Incumbents on this watch list include:
- Rep. Dave Brat in Virginia’s 7th District
- Rep. Tom Garrett in Virginia’s 5th District
- Rep. Bob Pittenger in North Carolina’s 9th District
- Rep. Ted Budd in North Carolina’s 13th District
- Rep. Tim Wahlberg in Michigan’s 7th District
- Rep. Mike Bishop in Michigan’s 8th District
- Rep. Glenn Grothman in Wisconsin’s 6th District
- Rep. Mike Bost in Illinois’ 12th District.
They and a few others that Republican leaders are monitoring have worrisome deficiencies that could lead to a surprise on Election Day, despite the traditional Republican lean of their districts and the solid support their voters delivered to Trump 16 months ago.
They’re not raising enough money and so far have been outraised by prospective Democratic challengers and have been slow to ramp up a battle ready campaign organization. Democratic recruiting in some of these districts has been successful, so much so that GOP insiders concede their incumbents could be in real trouble despite the partisan advantage of their favorably gerrymandered seats.
“There’s always a few folks who needed a wake-up call and if anybody needed a wake-up call they got one [Tuesday,”] said Rep. Steve Stivers of Ohio, the NRCC chairman.
House Republican leaders, led by Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., have been pounding this message to slacking incumbents since earlier last year. The speaker’s political team meets regularly with chiefs of staff to discuss the midterm and review what incumbents are doing to prepare for the midterm.
Sources close with leadership say the effort is paying dividends, with the number of problem members decreasing as the 2018 elections draw near.
Among them, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington, the House Republican Conference chairwoman, and Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky. Both have seen an uptick in fundraising and legwork to build out their campaigns. Rep. John Culberson, R-Texas, is another incumbent that Republicans credit for stepping up his game; as they do Grothman, who, as a member of the Wisconsin delegation, is getting special attention from Ryan.
But privately, many Republicans are still unhappy with the attitude and preparations of several of their colleagues, saying the party remains far too optimistic about its chances of holding the House majority.
They view the response to the results in the Pennsylvania special election as dismissive and unserious, rejecting the spin coming from some quarters on the right, not to mention their own leadership, that Lamb only beat Saccone because he ran as a Republican. Lamb distanced himself from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and positioned himself as a moderate on cultural issues, but opposed the Republicans’ tax overhaul and attempts to repeal Obamacare.
One House Republican, speaking on condition of anonymity, referred to the situation as a “dumpster fire,” lamenting that some of the very members that needed to hear the tough-love message delivered about 2018 at a Wednesday morning political conference either didn’t attend or didn’t pay attention. If the results from the 18th District didn’t scare them, this House Republican said, it’s likely that nothing will.
“If our members and candidates aren’t preparing today for what lies ahead, they should be preparing for another line of work,” a Republican strategist said.
