The last thing the vulnerable Senate majority needs right now is adding another seat to the list that could flip the chamber to Democratic control in November.
But a new poll suggests one of the party’s most solid re-election prospects and most veteran members could be in trouble.
John McCain, an Arizona Republican who has served in the senate for five terms, is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, a new poll suggests.
McCain is “locked in a dead heat” with Kirkpatrick, according to a Rocky Mountain Poll released last week by the Behavioral Research Center.
The survey found McCain and Kirkpatrick captured 42 percent of the vote statewide, while 16 percent said they were undecided.
“Sen. McCain appears to have opened the door for Kirkpatrick to make gains with voters,” BRC officials said in a statement.
The BRC poll is the second voter measurement in a month that shows a tight race between McCain and Kirkpatrick, who represents Arizona’s 1st Congressional District in the U.S. House.
It’s a headache for Senate Republicans, who are already battling to maintain control of six GOP seats in very competitive races.
In a Merrill Poll taken in March, McCain garnered 41 percent of the vote, compared to 40 percent for Kirkpatrick.
“Folks know John McCain has changed after 33 years in Washington, and it’s clear they’re ready for a new voice in the U.S. Senate,” Kirkpatrick said in a statement.
McCain’s tepid voter support comes in spite of his powerful role as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, a high-profile position that showcases his military background and advocacy of a strong national defense.
Pollster Ron Faucheax, president of Clarus Research Group, said McCain’s long tenure in the Senate, which included a failed bid as the Republican presidential nominee in 2008, may be wearing on voters.
“Arizona voters have a case of McCain fatigue, and it’s coming from the Right and Left,” Faucheux said. “This could be McCain’s last stand.”
McCain has fielded heavy criticism from the conservative wing of his own party in recent years, especially after he helped co-author an immigration reform bill that would have provided a pathway to citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants.
Arizona’s conservative Maricopa Republican Party does not support McCain because of the immigration reform bill and his voting record, which they said did not do enough to stop President Obama’s agenda.
McCain faces primary challenges from five Republicans, but none is considered a serious threat.
Instead, McCain could be toppled by a Democrat.
Political strategists say the fractious Republican presidential primary featuring “outsider” candidates Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, could be hurting congressional candidates and helping to give Kirkpatrick an advantage.
Kirkpatrick’s camp has worked to tie McCain to GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump. McCain is officially neutral about the race, but has signaled he’s not a fan of Trump, who once called into question McCain’s status as a war hero. McCain, a Navy pilot during the Vietnam War, survived five years in a Vietnam prison camp.
In February, Kirkpatrick released an ad featuring Trump insulting McCain followed by McCain promising to endorse the GOP nominee, no matter who wins.
The close poll numbers, Arizona GOP strategist Jaime Molera told the Washington Examiner, “are tied to a lot of the concern Republican voters have with the presidential race.”
McCain told the Examiner he isn’t worried about the recent polls.
“Polls aren’t that important to me,” he said in an interview. “Anyone who is an incumbent should take their campaign with the utmost seriousness.”
Despite recent polls showing the two candidates deadlocked, McCain is considered a strong re-election prospect in the the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan and highly respected race-rating firm.
Editor Jennifer Duffy said general election polling before the party primaries may not be a good predictor of what will happen in November. She believes McCain’s seat is relatively safe, for now.
“There is a pattern with McCain,” Duffy told the Examiner. “He gets a primary challenge of varying credibility. Public polls show a tight general election race. He wins the primary, which he will again, and the public polls pop out again. In a cycle like this one, everything is worth watching closely, and I am watching this, but I am not at a point where I believe that McCain is in real trouble.”
