A new poll shows Republican Sen. Rob Portman and Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland are tied, bearing out predictions that Portman is not a lock to return to the Senate next year.
Public Policy Polling found a “very tight” race, with both Portman and Strickland garnering 38 percent of support, with 23 percent undecided.
“The Ohio Senate race could end up being the most competitive in the country this year,” Public Policy Polling president Dean Debnam said.
Even prior to the PPP survey, race ratings experts had already predicted a tough race for Portman, who is in the final year of his freshman term. The Cook Political Report moved the race to the “toss up” category at the end of March.
Cook Political Report senior editor Jennifer Duffy said Portman’s 2010 election to the Senate came as part of a Republican wave. That could make it harder for him to win a second time in a presidential election year and in a state that President Obama won in both 2008 and 2012.
A Quinnipiac poll taken in February showed Strickland beating Portman by 2 points.
Mark Weaver, an Ohio Republican political strategist, said Strickland’s name recognition has helped his poll numbers. Strickland served one term as governor, from 2007 until 2011 after spending ten years in the U.S. House.
“Ted Strickland is a known quantity,” Weaver said. “Rob Portman is somewhat less known. It’s natural for him to be a little further behind early on because he’s less defined than former Gov. Strickland is.”
Portman in recent weeks has played a prominent role in passing Senate legislation to help stop the growing problem of opioid addiction.
The Strickland campaign, meanwhile, has criticized Portman over the Senate GOP’s decision not to hold hearings or a vote on Merrick B. Garland, President Obama’s nominee to the Supreme Court.
“I can tell you that my on-line contributions to my campaign have tripled since Sen. Portman has taken the position that he’s taken regarding the Supreme Court nominee that President Obama has put forth,” Strickland told Ohio’s WKSU recently.
The Public Policy Polling may reinforce Strickland’s claim. It found 65 percent of Ohio voters believe the Senate should at least hold hearings on Garland’s nomination.
Portman has so far sided with most Senate Republicans who want the next president to pick the high court nominee.
“Instead of having a nomination fight in this partisan election-year environment, I believe awaiting the result of the election will give the nominee more legitimacy and better preserve the Court’s credibility as an institution,” Portman said after meeting with Garland recently.
Still, Weaver said he expects Portman to start pulling ahead of Strickland.
“It’s a deep and disciplined campaign organization,” Weaver said. “Rob Portman knows the issues cold and outworks everyone.”
