The Democracy Corps (James Carville and Stan Greenberg) released a new poll this week assessing the state of the presidential campaign following the two parties’ conventions. The survey reports results from both a national sample and a sub-sample of likely voters in over a dozen battleground states. Like other recent surveys, this finds positive movement toward McCain/Palin. But the internals of the poll reveal why Obama has slipped in the past month. The authors write this about the top-line numbers:
The latest events in the presidential campaign have tightened the race dramatically. In Democracy Corps’ latest surveys of 1,000 likely voters nationally and 1,017 likely voters in the presidential battleground states, the vote margin has shifted 7 points towards John McCain nationally and 9 points in the battleground.
Why? Carville and Greenberg point to four new, post-convention dynamics based on the on their survey findings. Most of these trends are occurring both nationally and in the battleground states:
1. McCain successfully painted Obama as too liberal, too inexperienced, and as a weak leader who favors giving up in Iraq. 2. Obama lost his double-digit advantage as the leader who could bring about the “right kind of change” and the “candidate better able to stand up to special interests.” 3. McCain made strides among independents nationally, widening his lead from about 3 points in July to 10 points post-convention. Interestingly, this is one trend that did not transfer to battleground states, where the race among independents remains tight (43%-43% post convention vs. 41%-41% in July). 4. Obama continues to lose ground with white voters over 50 years of age. This trend is most pronounced among non-college educated whites and senior women.
You can read the entire poll analysis here.
