Shortly after Joe Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said the Democratic nominee becoming the president-elect “has been apparent for a while.”
“Good for them,” Silver tweeted after Decision Desk HQ, a nonpartisan election analysis firm, announced its projection that Biden would take Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral College votes — and the White House. “The outcome has been apparent for a while. No reason other sources shouldn’t follow.”
Good for them. The outcome has been apparent for a while. No reason other sources shouldn’t follow. There’s some doubt about the outcome of Georgia and Arizona, still, but Biden doesn’t need those states to be elected. https://t.co/aL9359i9V8
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2020
Other analysts have been more conservative on calling Pennsylvania a Biden win. With approximately 95% of the expected vote counted, Biden’s roughly 5,500 is well within Pennsylvania’s margin for triggering an automatic recount.
“Biden has taken the lead in Pennsylvania,” the New York Times’s Nate Cohn tweeted. “The key question: will anyone call it on this basis? Often, they wait until a candidate has cleared .5 point / the recount threshold.”
The key question: will anyone call it on this basis? Often, they wait until a candidate has cleared .5 point / the recount threshold.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 6, 2020
Pennsylvania is one of the “blue wall” states that flipped for President Trump in 2016 and solidified his path to the White House, along with Michigan and Wisconsin. However, this year, both Michigan and Wisconsin were called for Biden by the Associated Press. The Trump campaign has called for a recount in Wisconsin.
A Biden win in Pennsylvania would be a decisive victory in an election that has been defined by victories with razor-thin margins. Without the Keystone State, Biden’s most likely path to the White House relies on taking Arizona and Nevada and holding on to exactly 270 Electoral College votes. Decision Desk HQ projects that even without Nevada or Arizona, Biden will get to 273 electoral votes should Pennsylvania remain in his column.
On election night, Trump had a massive 600,000-vote lead on the former vice president. However, in Pennsylvania, counties are not allowed to begin counting mail-in ballots until after the polls close. Limited resources and volunteers amid the coronavirus pandemic prompted at least seven counties to hold off on counting any mail-in ballots until Wednesday.
On Thursday, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party projected that 75% of all remaining mail-in ballots would go for Biden and that he would win Pennsylvania by about 175,000 votes. With roughly 163,000 votes remaining, such a wide margin seems unlikely. But Democrats disproportionately voted by mail in Pennsylvania by nearly 2-1, so Biden’s lead is likely to grow.
The Trump campaign has already announced a flurry of lawsuits in battleground states regarding vote counting, including in Pennsylvania.
