Donald Trump has made himself the face of America’s immigration debate and it could help or hurt him tremendously now that the Supreme Court has curbed President Obama’s authority on the issue.
Thursday’s split decision on the president’s 2014 executive actions — to grant reprieve to millions of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally and expand the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program — could energize Republicans who remain wary of Trump, but aren’t ready to forfeit the Supreme Court to Hillary Clinton.
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“This is the kind of thing that could make a difference at the margin for some people,” Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Reform, told the Washington Examiner 24 hours after the Supreme Court deadlocked. “For people who saw [Trump’s] list of justices and were somewhat placated, what this ruling does is accentuate the importance of the next Supreme Court pick.”
Indeed, the Supreme Court vacancy, created by the sudden passing of conservative Justice Antonin Scalia in February, puts immigration and a host of other issues on the ballot. Clinton, who has previously vowed to expand the Obama administration’s immigration policies, has also said she would decline to appoint any judge to the high court who does not support abortion.
“Since this was a 4-4 [decision], if Hillary gets to appoint the next justice and this comes back to the Supreme Court, they’ll rubber stamp it for her,” Krikorian said of Clinton’s lenient immigration proposals.
In separate reactions to the court’s deadlocked decision, both Clinton and Trump emphasized the “high stakes” at play this election.
“These are our friends and family members; neighbors and classmates; DREAMers and parents of Americans and lawful permanent residents,” Clinton said. The former secretary of state’s emotional plea was a far cry from the praise her Republican opponent heaped on the court for blocking “one of the most unconstitutional actions ever undertaken by a president.”
“Immigration, particularly with what just happened in Britain, is a really big issue this election cycle and this decision gives Trump good reason to stay focused and on message,” said veteran Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.
It also gives Trump good reason to bolster his ground operation in swing states with heavy Hispanic populations.
“Does this help Trump? Yes. But it gives Hillary a lot of campaign ammo too. She’s probably happy they came out with a split ruling because this gives her a tool to fire up in Florida, Colorado, Nevada and potentially Arizona,” O’Connell said.
Political insiders expect the decision will also galvanize immigrant rights groups, who are more inclined to encourage the support of a Democratic candidate like Clinton. Groups like FWD.us, United We Dream and the National Council of La Raza were quick to condemn the split decision on Thursday, declaring it a “real setback.”
“On its face, I actually expect the decision to at least modestly increase turnout for Hillary because it will energize the advocacy groups,” Krikorian said. “La Raza and the rest of these outlets may be able to gin up enough political energy from the disappointment among people who were expecting work permits and from their relatives, who think their family members will now be deported.”
