The coronavirus pandemic poses a serious threat to public health and the economy, but if President Trump meets the moment, he’ll have the upper hand heading into the general election.
Incumbency has in-built advantages ahead of reelection bids, and although dramatically different in this cycle, that’s one aspect of the political landscape that remains the same in 2020.
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Trump and his COVID-19 task force have commandeered the news cycle as millions tune in to their daily White House press briefings for the latest regarding the outbreak. Some media critics have urged outlets not to broadcast the events live unless they are fact-checked in real time, a repeat complaint from the 2016 election when then-candidate Trump claimed he helped networks drive up their ratings.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden, the presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, is stuck in the recreation room of his Delaware home, giving national TV interviews, convening short press conferences, and hosting happy hours with limited reach and relevancy as he tries to turn November’s election into a referendum on Trump.
Republican strategist Chris DeRose agreed Trump’s political fate in the fall fight was tied to the pandemic, while Biden, a former two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator, was hamstrung by not having an official platform.
“No one is paying any attention to the election — it’s out of Joe Biden’s hands,” DeRose said. “This would be different if the president was running against a governor or even a member of Congress. Imagine if New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo were the nominee.”
While the United States is yet to reach its coronavirus peak and the national quarantine recommendation is only in its third week, Trump’s job approval rating holds steady amid fierce criticism from state and local governments over his administration’s handling of medical equipment and supplies procurement.
As the 2020 election nears, Trump will be judged by how well the country blunts the case curve, with estimates suggesting the novel respiratory illness could claim more than 100,000 lives despite social distancing precautions. He’ll also be assessed on how he assists the more than 3 million people who have already lost their jobs as almost 90% of the country is ordered to stay at home and nonessential businesses are shuttered.
University of California, San Diego’s Thad Kousser told the Washington Examiner the situation, however, played against Trump’s instincts to contrast his handling of the crisis with a Biden hypothetical.
“The curse is that it takes away one of his political strengths, which is the ability to inflict enough damage upon his political rivals to win a race even if voters do not strongly approve of him,” he said.
Republican communications expert Ron Nehring advised Trump and his reelection campaign to remain focused on the pandemic because “the politics will take care of itself.” He reminded them that “the buck stops at the Oval Office,” though the president has insisted otherwise.
“Every action taken by every person in the administration must reflect that this is first a public health crisis, not a PR crisis. Yet, they need to adhere to the principles of communicating in a crisis: Be first, be accurate, be complete, and be compassionate. Anything else is a distraction,” Nehring said.
For Nehring, there was also pressure on Biden, given his penchant for verbal missteps.
“The best news for Joe Biden is that with this public health crisis raging, nobody cares about his son’s business dealings, the Ukraine or Burisma,” he said. “The worst news for Biden is that the president has the daily opportunity to demonstrate his leadership in overcoming the crisis. Every day, the president is going to be in the A-block of the cable shows, and Biden is an afterthought.”
Nehring added, “There is a very good chance the country will be back in a full-speed recovery by November. That’s the worst possible case for Biden.”
