Indiana’s 7th Congressional district will play host to a special election on March 11, as a result of the passing of Representative Julia Carson on December 15. Carson never ran up huge margins in her Congressional seat; she won her last three races with about 54% of the vote. The district’s Partisan Vote Index is Democrat +9, meaning that the average Democrat defeats the average Republican by 9 points. All-in-all, it’s a safe Democratic seat. In special elections however, odd things can sometimes happen. And while it’s a longshot, this could be one time with the underdog pulls off a surprise. The Republican candidate is Jon Elrod, who was elected to the Indiana statehouse in a major upset in 2006. He defeated a 10-year Democratic incumbent by just 8 votes. His first race was in 2004, when he won as a big underdog in a race for the Center Township Board. In addition to his narrow statehouse win, Indianapolis was also home to an extraordinary upset in the 2006 Mayoral race, where voter anger over crime and taxes led to the victory of political newcomer Greg Ballard, in a race considered by some to be the biggest upset in Indiana history. (Although sensible people recognize that this is.)
Elrod is well-known for his grass-roots politicking. He attributes his wins so far to knocking on thousands of doors. And since his Democratic opponent is a product of the local machine, he’s got a chance. A Democratic partisan recently predicted his win in a post at the popular liberal blog MyDD:
This is a race to keep your eye on. The Democrats are worried enough about this unfavorable candidate matchup that the DCCC is committing money to Carson’s race. They know that a Republican win here would be an extraordinary black eye for the party, and would demonstrate that Republican congressional hopes are not as weak as some might think. You can see a recent address by Elrod here.
