It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness… Actually, no. Strike that. All around the globe, it was the worst of times, and foolishness was making new records. But in London, despite massive cuts in the country’s burgeoning budget, the streets were calm and the populace went about their daily business in a sober, if not particularly elated, mood. They did notice, however, that the government was advising all British tourists to stay away from France.
That was because in Paris the scene looked strikingly different. At the mere mention of pension reform, Parisian union workers, bored students with a deeply flawed understanding of labor economics, and other state workers took to the streets, burning cars and clashing with police. They threw up blockades and formed picket lines, shutting down refineries and public transit, closing schools, and engaging in acts of violence and vandalism.
The Tory/Liberal Democratic coalition in the UK announced this week deep cuts in public spending, slashing billions of dollars from welfare, defense, and other programs. All told, nearly 500,000 public sector workers will lose their jobs.
In France, the government has announced that they will be raising the retirement age from 65 to 67 and the minimum retirement age from 60 to 62.
While the Paris streets are not exactly running with blood, and no Robespierre has emerged to foist yet another Reign of Terror on the French people, there is something oddly similar to this scene of a becalmed Britain standing in stark contrast to the rioting French. Perhaps remnants of the French Revolution still linger in the collective minds of both nations, the Burkean anti-revolutionary impulse still guiding British action, steadying its hand, the memory of radical change inspiring the French protesters.
The real question is what will happen here in America when we finally have to pay the piper, when our age of profligacy ends and the era of austerity begins. No doubt at some point the debts will need to be paid. The burgeoning public pension system will need to be reformed. Social Security and Medicare will need to be patched up. Medicare in particular will need to face serious changes if it is to remain a viable program of insurance for the elderly.
These are not ideological talking points either – they are simply facts. Our system of entitlements relies on economic growth and population increases at above the rate of replacement, and it’s looking more and more likely that productivity and economic growth will not be enough to maintain them. Perhaps we are even entering an era of slow growth and sustained unemployment, making the future crisis even more dire. A more secular, atomized society is also a society less concerned with bearing children, and currently Americans just barely exceed the rate of replacement. These two factors combined create a great deal of uncertainty for the future of our entitlement system.
But will Americans take their medicine with the sobriety and calm of the British public, or will they turn to the streets like the French? The answer is that for as long as possible we will do neither: instead, we will keep borrowing, keep making promises that are impossible to keep, and keep kicking this can down the road as far as we are able. I can understand this for the moment – we are, after all, in the midst of a terrible recession, one of the worst possible times to raise taxes or cut spending. But eventually we will have to face our financial demons unblinkingly.
