For supporters of Donald Trump who are discouraged by the latest slate of polls showing Hillary Clinton up 5 percent just days before Election Day, polling guru Nate Silver had some reassuring words Sunday morning.
“Some people are saying Clinton’s up 5-6 nationally. That’s just not a good representation of what the data says,” Silver tweeted. But, he admitted, Clinton does have a lead.
Some people are saying Clinton’s up 5-6 nationally. That’s just not a good representation of what the data says. But, she has a lead.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2016
Silver added that the average of the most recent “live-caller” national polls has Clinton up 2.3 points, while his election prediction website FiveThirtyEight has the former secretary of state up 2.9 points in the popular vote.
Average of 6 most recent live-caller national polls has Clinton +2.3 points. 538’s popular vote estimate is Clinton +2.9.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2016
As part of a Twitter tirade Saturday, Silver lambasted the Huffington Post showing Clinton ahead by 6 points. “It’s wrong to show Clinton with a 6-point lead (as per HuffPo) when **almost no national poll shows that**. Doesn’t reflect the data,” Silver said.
His rant began in response to Huffington Post article titled, “Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump’s Direction.” The article, Silver said, was “so fucking idiotic and irresponsible.”
It’s wrong to show Clinton with a 6-point lead (as per HuffPo) when **almost no national poll shows that**. Doesn’t reflect the data.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016
FiveThirtyEight’s model currently gives a Clinton 65.5 percent chance of winning it all on Tuesday; 34.5 percent for Trump.
