As states consider relaxing coronavirus lockdown orders, a new report estimates that fully reopening the economy would lead to an additional 233,000 deaths nationally by the end of June relative to not reopening — but would at the same time save approximately 18.6 million jobs from being lost.
The University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model analyzed the health and economic effects of states partially reopening (lifting emergency declarations, stay-at-home orders, and school closures) as well as fully reopening, which would include businesses and restaurants as well.
The model, released on Friday, projects on a national level that if states do not open before June 30 and maintain the status quo, the cumulative national deaths due to the virus would rise to about 117,000 by June 30 (including deaths before May 1), and approximately 18.6 million jobs would be lost between May 1 and June 30.
A partial reopening of the economy would cause 45,000 additional deaths by June 30, relative to not reopening, and about 4.4 million jobs would be saved, for a total of 14 million jobs lost between May 1 and June 30, the report projected.
Fully reopening the economy would lead to an additional 233,000 deaths by the end of June, and almost all net job losses between May 1 and June 30 would be eliminated, the report projected.
In the unlikely scenario that people saw a full reopening as a “return to normal” and as a result voluntarily chose to relax their own social distancing practices, behaving like they did on Feb. 1, 2020, then cumulative national deaths would reach 950,000 by June 30, the report projected. Job losses would turn to a net positive of 4.1 million jobs gained, which would erase some of the job losses before May 1.
The Wharton projections are based on estimating daily measures of social distancing, GDP growth, and changes in employment. In addition, they use an epidemiological model to estimate state viral reproduction rates, which are then used to forecast cases and deaths for each state.
States are currently releasing their own tailored plans to reopen economies amid the COVID-19 pandemic, days after Georgia announced it would begin to loosen restrictions on businesses that include beauty salons, gyms, bowling alleys, and tattoo parlors.
Statewide stay-at-home orders in Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Maine, Nevada, and Texas are expected to expire on Thursday. Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Tennessee are all partially reopening this week.
