Fred Kagan emails:
Iranian media outlets have started calling the election for Ahmadinejad. Mousavi also claims victory, but I strongly suspect that Ahmadinejad has won the election-at least the first round. Irantracker.org will have continuous updates tonight and over the weekend for anyone who’s interested. This is a very important development, especially when taken together with Hezbollah’s defeat in Lebanon. I would encourage everyone to make a big deal of this-honest elections in Lebanon lead to defeat of radicals; constrained and probably fraudulent elections in Iran lead to victory of extreme radical. Note also, however, that polls in Iran also show general support for many of Ahmadinejad’s foreign policies, including pursuit of the nuclear program. Debates with his opponents (see Irantracker.org for a transcript of the Ahmadinejad-Mousavi debate) reveal that his opponents did not really disagree with him in any fundamental way on foreign policy.
