The vote for the next speaker of the House is due to begin this afternoon, and it’s still unclear if Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has the votes to take the gavel.
If McCarthy fails to garner enough votes, there are several possibilities for who may step up. The most obvious fallback candidate is his No. 2, incoming Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), but a wild card scenario could result in someone who isn’t even a current member of Congress in the speaker’s chair.
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Here are a few ways the race could play out if McCarthy is defeated:
Scalise
McCarthy’s deputy has kept a low profile over the past six weeks as the conservative hard-liners have doubled down on their opposition to the current minority leader. However, Scalise and McCarthy are similar ideologically, so he might not be enough of a concession to those Republicans who fault long-serving Republican leadership for not pushing conservative priorities harder in recent years.
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH)
Some of the anti-McCarthy squad is reportedly planning to back Jordan during the vote. Jordan is a Freedom Caucus member, which houses many of the members who want McCarthy out, and is the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee. He would be much more palatable to the conservative wing of the party but would struggle to gain the support of centrists. He has said he has no interest in becoming speaker.
Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC)
McHenry, the top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee, is another name tossed around. He also served as the House Republican chief deputy whip from 2014 to 2019.
A former member
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) told Punchbowl News that he and other moderates would consider backing a centrist former member of Congress. Though he didn’t name anyone specific, former Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) has been floated as a possibility. Upton was one of the 10 House Republicans to vote for former President Donald Trump’s second impeachment.
“Our intention is not to vote for a person in the conference outside of Kevin,” Bacon told Punchbowl.
A ‘caretaker’
If the situation devolves enough that none of the candidates can get enough votes, Republicans could rally behind a steady, placeholder speaker who could serve until they agree on someone else. There’s been some talk about Reps. Frank Lucas (R-OK) or Tom Cole (R-OK) serving in this position.
Democratic-backed unity candidate
A very unlikely outcome would be centrist Republicans joining with centrist Democrats for a “unity candidate,” which could result in a Democratic speaker despite the Republican majority. Speakers are typically from the majority party since they only need a simple majority of the House’s backing but aren’t required to be from the majority party or even a current member of the lower chamber. Outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) has been floated for this kind of nomination.
Minority Leader-elect Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said he would not support this tactic and expects his caucus to vote for him for speaker to avoid aiding Republicans in any way.
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At the vote later Tuesday, McCarthy needs the support of a majority of members voting and present in order to become speaker. With Democrats set on voting for Jeffries, that leaves McCarthy very little wiggle room to lose any of the 222 Republican votes. At least four and as many as 18 Republicans have said they’ll withhold their votes. At a conference meeting Tuesday morning, McCarthy acknowledged that he didn’t have the support with just hours before the vote.
