Joe Biden would put Arizona in play against President Trump and forge a path for Democrats to counter the president’s advantage in the Midwest, according to a new nonpartisan poll that also revealed Bernie Sanders losing to Trump.
The survey of likely voters from Arizona polling firm OH Predictive Insights, conducted March 3-4 but only released Friday, showed Biden leading Trump 49% to 43%, with 8% undecided. By contrast, the president held an advantage in a hypothetical matchup with Bernie Sanders, leading 45% to 38%, with 16% undecided. Arizona’s 11 votes in the Electoral College, which Trump won in 2016, offer Democrats one option for replacing the 10 electoral votes they would miss out on if Trump repeats his 2016 victory in the heartland battleground of Wisconsin.
“If Arizona Democrats want a shot at flipping Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes in their favor for the first time since 1996, former VP Joe Biden is the wise choice on March 17,” said Mike Noble, chief of research for OH Predictive Insights. The Democratic primary in Arizona is scheduled for Tuesday. Sunday’s Biden-Sanders debate, originally set to occur in Phoenix, was moved to Washington, D.C., because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Arizona has voted Republican for president in every election since 1996, when the state supported Bill Clinton. But the Arizonans sent Democrat Kyrsten Sinema to the Senate in 2018 as part of a midterm election backlash against Trump, an outcome fueled by suburban discontent with the GOP, especially among women.
Fueling Biden’s remarkably better numbers against the president than Sanders are Hispanic voters. In the poll, 63% preferred Biden, with 27% saying they would vote for Trump. Sanders was beating Trump among Hispanic voters by just seven points — 34% to 27%.
The survey has a margin of error of 4 points. It was fielded before the World Health Organization labeled the coronavirus crisis a global pandemic and prior to the extraordinary decline of the stock market in recent days.
