A friendly relationship with President Trump and a $230 million arms deal are enough for Hungary to stave off criticism after a decade of democratic decline and potential infiltration by Russia and China.
That’s the assessment of Hungarian security analyst Pal Dunay, Ph.D. Dunay told the Washington Examiner the Hungarian Ministry of Defense sees the purchase as completely in line with its “cornerstone” commitment to NATO.
“The Russians wanted to have us closer to them and we were on sale!” said Dunay of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin while making “symbolic” arms purchases to assuage the United States and NATO, which it joined in 1999.
Dunay characterized the purchase of 60 AIM-120C-7/C-8 AMRAAM-ER medium-range air-to-air missiles for half an air wing of aging Swedish Gripen fighters as a way of spreading European Union-financed largess in the face of dubious relationships with America’s adversaries.
“Hungary is playing a very sophisticated and quite complex game,” Dunay explained. “Basically, trying to keep relations with the Western powers in balance with some of the very absurd, dictatorial regimes and authoritarian regimes.”
Dunay gave his personal assessments to the Washington Examiner based on 40 years of studying Hungary and not those of the Pentagon-funded George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in southern Germany, where he works as a scholar.
Orban’s close ties with Russia’s Putin began in 2009, Dunay said, before Orban ascended to prime minister for the second time.
“That was the turning point,” he said. “A good KGB operational officer is never making a mistake. If somebody can be bought, he will be bought, and since then, indeed, we have a number of interesting deals with the Russian Federation.”
After the meeting, Orban locked a €12 billion line of credit with Russia to build two nuclear turbines. Later, Orban agreed to allow the son of a former KGB operative to run a Russian investment bank with diplomatic immunity in the center of Budapest.
“There is no secret about it. He is coming from a good family with perfect pedigree of being a secret service operative,” Dunay said.
Security analysts have expressed concern that the bank building and its employees will be a thinly-veiled spy center meant to infiltrate NATO and the EU on behalf of Russia.
The case for Chinese infiltration is rooted in Hungary’s use of Huawei 5G technology.
“Huawei is massively present in Hungary,” said Dunay, citing the widespread use of its phones, a research facility and Chinese workers who collaborate with Hungarian engineers. “This is worth making a phone call to indicate that you are not pleased.”
Dunay suspects a May 6 call between Trump and Orban was meant to discourage Hungary from adopting Chinese 5G and dependent infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the $230 million U.S. arms sale was approved by the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency this month and sailed through Congress’s 15-day waiting period for NATO allies without a hitch.
Hungary-U.S. military ties go back decades, and the southeast European country has been careful to always pull back from its eastward leanings before it upsets the U.S. or EU power broker Germany, Dunay added.
But the former director of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs held little hope for Hungary as a NATO ally or deterrent to Russian aggression in the region.
“Hungary is a state which does not perceive a threat from the Russian Federation and with this Hungary is definitely different,” he said, comparing Hungary to other NATO countries in the Baltics and Eastern Europe.
Dunay also pointed to a recent report by the NGO Freedom House, which highlighted Hungary’s precipitous decline as a democracy.
“Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government in Hungary has similarly dropped any pretense of respecting democratic institutions,” the May report stated.
Dunay continued: “If you asked the question if I were a NATO member state whether I would trust the Hungarian leadership, my answer would be ‘No.’”
A loyal partner and ally
The Hungarian Ministry of Defense told the Washington Examiner Friday that there is no doubt about Hungary’s commitment to the NATO alliance, to its U.S. partnership and to facing Russia head-on if it were called to do so.
“The United States of America is one of the most important strategic Allies of Hungary in the field of defense cooperation,” a Hungarian defense official said in a statement, citing U.S. training of Hungarian special operations forces since 2005, more than 1,500 Hungarian military exchange students, and a 27-year relationship with the Ohio National Guard.
“There is no question about that Hungary would be a reliable Ally … if one of our Allies were attacked by a third party,” the official said. “Our relations with Russia mainly dominated by economic issues do not have any impact on our commitment to NATO.”
The official further said that Hungary’s new national security strategy, published in April, makes NATO participation foundational.
“It is in our vital interest that NATO, which is the cornerstone of our security, remain a credible Alliance in this world of high volatility,” the official said.
The State Department also gave the Washington Examiner no reason for concern when asked about the arms sale and bilateral ties with Hungary.
“This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by improving the security of a NATO ally,” a State Department official said in a statement. “This proposed sale improves Hungary’s defense capability to deter regional threats and strengthen its homeland defense.”
The Hungarian official noted the new missiles would replace an obsolete air defense system of Russian origin. Dunay agreed with the State Department’s premise.
“Hungary is not going to challenge its Western alignment because it would end up in an empty space,” he said.
“Why would you not sell when it is bringing money to the defense industry?” he added. “This country is maximizing its benefits of its formal membership in the Atlantic alliance.”
Hungary to be sure has maintained its commitment to the NATO alliance.
Although a country of just 9.7 million, Hungarian troops have fought in Iraq and Kosovo. Hungary’s NATO presence in Afghanistan began in 2003 as part of a transportation battalion, one of the most dangerous missions on Afghanistan’s frequently targeted roadways.
On Wednesday, Orban’s budget was submitted to parliament, calling for a 21% increase in defense spending, Dunay said. The effort is part of a commitment to achieve 2% gross domestic product defense spending by 2024 and satisfy Trump’s demands for NATO allies to meet the benchmark as fast as possible.
Just four years ago, Hungary’s defense spending hovered just over 1% of GDP. Its 2019 estimate is 1.21%.
Dunay assesses that Hungary is not intentionally undermining the U.S. through its relationships with great power rivals but is, rather, maximizing its political survivability.
“Hungary, with its expanded spending on defense, is going to spend money in every direction,” he said. “The prime minister is precisely knowing if the current U.S. leadership likes to see a demonstration of allegiance and loyalty, then he gets it in the form of buying weapons that we need.”
Hungary’s defense purchase is still far below Poland’s more than $4 billion in recent arms purchases and Romania’s more than $2 billion in arms purchases, he added.
“We are a small fish in the pond,” Dunay said. “It’s both symbolically important, and it has economic benefits. Why would you not do it?”
A ‘free ride’
While Hungary’s complicated power-play draws America and NATO’s biggest adversaries into its orbit, Dunay believes his homeland does not pose a national security threat to the U.S., as long as it is under close watch.
“The Hungarian leadership is a leadership that you have to basically monitor on more than a daily basis because whenever you look the other way, they are going to do something that you don’t necessarily like,” he said. “You can learn the lesson and say, ‘Okay, I’m going to pay so much attention so that these guys won’t feel that they can just have a free ride.”
The Hungarian Defense Ministry declined to respond to questions about Russian or Chinese infiltration.
Dunay said Hungary’s Russian nuclear power plant construction is “massively delayed,” but the Russian-controlled International Investment Bank has already relocated from Moscow to Budapest and acquired the 19th-century Lanchid Palota building on the Danube River.
“This is not a children’s playbook,” Dunay said of Orban’s strategy. “There are these people who you have to watch out for because whenever you look the other way, they are doing some nasty things.”
