Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power may not be as firm as it appears in the wake of prompting his entire cabinet to resign en masse this week, according to officials and analysts who monitor Kremlin politics. Putin jettisoned Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, sacrificing a longtime loyalist with a bad reputation in an apparent attempt to protect his own political image.
“It seems that Putin is not as powerful and not as certain about his power in Russia as it seems to be,” a Baltic diplomat told the Washington Examiner. “He feels vulnerable.”
The resignations came after Putin unveiled a surprise plan to amend the Russian Constitution in ways that would weaken the presidency but potentially benefit him personally. The announcement stunned NATO observers and domestic Kremlin allies alike. Putin’s proposals could signal a plan to retain control of the government after his presidential term ends in 2024.
“The Kremlin decided not to wait five more years and risk the loss of control,” Alisa Muzergues, a foreign policy analyst at GLOBSEC in Slovakia, told the Washington Examiner.
The decision to dump Medvedev suggests that Putin needed a scapegoat for the nation’s ailing economy, analysts said.
“It is definitely a sign of vulnerability,” Muzergues continued. “I think that they decided to take Medvedev out of public eyes and also strip him of responsibilities connected to economy due to his unpopular image.”
Medvedev has played an important role in extending Putin’s political life, especially at the times when presidential term limits threatened to constrain the former KGB spy. Putin endorsed Medvedev for president in 2007 as his second term ended, before taking office as prime minister. That maneuver allowed Putin to remain in power while complying with the constitutional ban on serving more than two consecutive terms as president.
Four years later, the two leaders traded jobs. Medvedev stepped aside, clearing the path for Putin to return to the presidency and appoint his loyal partner as prime minister. As Putin looks ahead to the second end of his presidency, Medvedev’s usefulness appears to be running out. The prime minister was forced to resign, along with the rest of the government, as Putin shifted him to the newly created role of deputy chairman of the Security Council.
“Dmitry has always been dealing with these issues,” Putin said on Wednesday. “From the standpoint of enhancing our defense capability and security, I believe that it is possible and asked him to handle issues of this kind in the future.”
That’s a polite way of saying that Medvedev is losing his influence over the economy, which has stagnated during Putin’s tenure in part because of Western sanctions following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and attack on eastern Ukraine.
“He senses that his popularity is dropping,” the Muzergues said of Putin. “The way out for him is to kind of put the blame on Medvedev to kind of let people see that Putin takes care of them: ‘It is Medvedev who is to blame for the current situation.'”
That development seems to have caught the outgoing prime minister by surprise. “It was kind of a thunderstorm — members of government, including Medvedev himself, didn’t know anything in advance,” Muzergues said. “Medvedev’s schedule was planned until the end of the month, and he was actively preparing for the cabinet meeting scheduled for 16th January.”
If Putin’s demotion of Medvedev demonstrates his control over the Russian political system, it’s also telling that he felt pressured to sacrifice a longtime lieutenant. “It is our reading that he made this decision not out of strength but out of weakness,” the Baltic diplomat said.
