WHEN IT COMES to public reputation, Congress is like the kid from the wrong side of the tracks. Perceived as an ill-mannered and unscrupulous institution, Americans’ view of this legislative body could inspire songs like, “Mama, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow up To Be House Members.” Yet this belief is at odds with voters’ views of their own incumbent lawmakers, which historically are far more favorable.
Throughout most of last year, as overall congressional approval numbers tanked, incumbent support always remained significantly higher. University of Rochester political scientist Richard Fenno first observed this contradiction between citizens loving their Congressman but hating Congress almost 30 years ago. Indeed, academics found the love-hate relationship so puzzling and interesting they created an entire cottage industry of research aimed at solving what’s now known as “Fenno’s Paradox.”
Publicity about the “first woman speaker” and the Democrats’ first 100 hour legislative sprint gave the new House majority–and Congress in general–a much needed infusion of good news. This honeymoon period stands in stark contrast to the constant barrage of stories last year about Republican failures on ethics, spending, and competence, which created what some GOP consultants called the “stranglers, thieves, and pedophiles” election cycle.
SO IT’S NOT ENTIRELY SURPRISING that in recent weeks, several public polls reported a significant up tick in congressional approval ratings compared with last year. For example, Gallup showed a jump in approval from 26 percent to 35 percent between November 2006 and January 2007–still low, but moving in the right direction. The survey organization issued a report in late January 2007 headlined, “Congressional Job Approval Gets Boost After Democratic Takeover.” My own polling for Dutko Worldwide Research shows a similar trend, with congressional approval jumping about 10 points during the same period. Not enough to erase Professor Fenno’s conjecture–individual incumbents’ standing with voters still outpaces the collective perceptions of the institution by a wide margin–but the swing is stout enough to merit asking the question: Was there a Pelosi bounce?
Despite gracious words from President Bush about the country’s first woman speaker of the House in his State of the Union address, and the conclusion of the 100 hour agenda, the answer is probably no.
INSTEAD the causes of last month’s bump have less to do with the new majority’s style and legislative agenda, and more with old patterns of polarization. A closer look at the numbers demonstrates how deeply partisanship drives attitudes about things in Washington. And Congress is no exception.
Back before the Democrats took control of Congress, despite plummeting approval ratings overall, Congress was much more popular among Republicans than Democrats. Looking behind the top line numbers in a Dutko Worldwide survey, approval of Congress was 54 percent among Republican voters, but only 18 percent among Democrats (among 805 registered voters, in a survey conducted from November 17 to November 20). Interestingly, Democrats were much more negative about Congress than Republicans were positive. Republicans were 18 percent net positive (54 percent approve / 36 disapprove) in our survey, but Democrats were a whopping 53 percent net negative (18 percent approve / 71 disapprove) in the same study. This near universal negativism among Democrats compared to the less intense positive evaluation among Republicans dragged down the overall Congressional approval number.
Fast forward to late January and the two parties literally traded places in their evaluations of Congress. As mentioned above, overall approval jumped 10 percent when the Democratic majority took over. This bump in approval in and of itself is not surprising. It’s kind of like the old football joke in Washington, “my two favorite teams are the Redskins and whoever the Cowboys are playing.”
The same principle helps explain most of the surge in congressional popularity. Republicans now fall into the net disapprove category (33 percent approve / 51 disapprove)–a 21-point decline in approval since our November survey. Democrats, on the other hand, discovered new affection for Congress, now demonstrating a 12-point net positive evaluation (50 percent approve / 38 disapprove), marking a 32-point advance in approval during the same period.
But it’s the intensity of the two partisan camps affects the overall numbers. Republicans are less intensely negative, thereby easing some of the drag on the overall Congressional approval numbers. This gap in intensity between Republicans and Democrats (71 percent net negative among Democrats when their party was in the minority, compared to only 18 percent net negative among Republicans now that they are in the minority) tended to pull down the overall numbers last year. Now it helps boost overall congressional approval.
The new Democratic majority has definitely provided a bump in congressional approval ratings. But instead of being a Pelosi bounce, driven by her style or her party’s legislative acumen, this recent surge is more closely linked to partisanship and the elimination of the extreme Democratic hostilities toward the GOP-run Congress. Republican voters–while not happy with the new majority–have not developed an intense rage towards Democrats.
Gary Andres is Vice Chairman, Research and Policy, Dutko Worldwide, a columnist for the Washington Times and writes occasionally for THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
