Return of the Red Line?

As John Kerry wraps up his tenure as secretary of state, he seems determined to defend his and President Obama’s legacy regarding the conflict in Syria. At this week’s U.S. Institute of Peace’s conference, Judy Woodruff asked Kerry about the perception that U.S. leadership could not be relied on that sprang from President Obama’s decision to defer action after his “red line” regarding Syria’s use of chemical weapons.

Kerry insisted, “President Obama never retreated from his redline. He never changed his mind about his readiness to bomb Assad to make it clear you don’t use chemical weapons—never.”

However, a posting on the state department’s blog this week by Thomas M. Countryman, acting under secretary of state for arms control and international security, calls Kerry’s assertion into question. Countryman, writing to urge the United Nations Security Council to “hold accountable individuals involved in the Syrian chemical weapons program,” said that “an independent international panel established by the UN Security Council in 2015, concluded this year that Syrian Arab Armed Forces used chlorine barrel bombs on civilians in three separate attacks in Syria in 2014 and 2015.” Given that these attacks happened after Syrian leader Bashir Assad’s pledge to rid the country of his chemical weapons ostensibly staved off President Obama’s threatened airstrikes, Countryman’s assertion that “[n]o person, group or nation should ever be allowed to use chemical weapons with impunity” strongly implies that Assad’s repeated use of chemical weapons would trigger President Obama’s “red line” threat.

When asked about this apparent contradiction, State Department spokesman Mark Toner issued the following statement to THE WEEKLY STANDARD:

The United States absolutely supports the efforts of the UK and France to pursue accountability through their draft United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution, which would impose targeted sanctions on the individuals and entities identified for using chemical weapons in Syria. It is crucial that the international community responds and that all individuals, entities, groups, and governments responsible for the use of chemical weapons in Syria be held accountable.

Then on Thursday, the Treasury Department announced that eighteen senior Syrian regime officials connected with Syria’s weapons of mass destruction program would be targets of U.S. sanctions, an action taken independently from the U.N. sanctions Thomas Countryman mentioned. The press release states that:

(the) United Nations (UN) Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM)… – established by the UN Security Council to investigate incidents of already-confirmed chemical weapon attacks – found that the Syrian government, specifically the Syrian Arab Air Force, was responsible for three chlorine gas attacks in Talmenes on April 21, 2014, and in Qmenas and Sarmin on March 16, 2015.

When asked why the well-established and repeated chemical weapons violations of the president’s red line did not trigger the previously threatened military response, the State Department declined to add further to Toner’s earlier comments.

For President Obama’s part, the White House issued a statement via Ned Price of the National Security Council on the sanctions announced by the Treasury Department. The statement said in part:

We condemn in the strongest possible terms the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons. The Asad regime’s barbaric continued attacks demonstrate its willingness to defy basic standards of human decency, its international obligations, and longstanding global norms. Syria agreed to join the Chemical Weapons Convention after its horrifying sarin chemical attack on Syrian civilians in the Ghouta area of Damascus on August 21, 2013, which killed more than a thousand people, many of them children. The United States worked closely with partners after that attack to remove and destroy the Syrian government’s declared chemical weapons program – an unprecedented operation to eliminate a dangerous threat to innocent civilians in Syria and the international community. The United States remains committed to working with our international partners to use all appropriate diplomatic mechanisms to hold the Syrian regime accountable for its abhorrent use of chemical weapons. We strongly urge every UN member state and parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention, including Russia, to support efforts to enforce accountability through the UN Security Council and using domestic law. The international community must make clear that chemical weapons use is unacceptable and violators will face significant consequences for their actions.

Just as with the State Department, however, the White House was silent on the original “red line” threat of military action. The “significant consequences” are apparently limited to sanctions—the president’s dire threats notwithstanding.

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