As Russian influence spreads across Eastern Europe, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius said conventional military involvement by Russia in the Baltics is not expected, “because that would be stupid to challenge NATO.”
Instead, the Russians are using hybrid methods like cyber and energy threats as leverage for political purposes. Linkevicius also cited non-state actors being possibly involved.
The Lithuanian foreign minister called for additional sanctions on Russia and to continue existing sanctions to counter the Russian threat.
“We’re capable to win, but we’re not winning,” Linkevicius said Wednesday.
Philip Breedlove, an Air Force General who retired last month as NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Europe, told THE WEEKLY STANDARD that the best strategy for NATO and the Baltics is to deter Russia. Investing in readiness and responsiveness now would present an “all of NATO force,” which would be too costly for Russia to engage.
“We need an appropriate mix of forward forces, rotational forces and rapidly reacting forces set to fall in on prepositioned material and combat equipment positioned strategically in at risk nations,” Breedlove told THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
The Baltic States cannot afford to deter the Russian threat alone. Lithuania is currently spending 1.5 percent of its GDP on defense, below the NATO guideline of 2 percent, but will reach 1.8 percent by the end of next year, Linkevicius said.
Lithuania recently reintroduced conscription and has planned to spend 2 percent of its GDP on defense by 2018. Heading into Warsaw, more countries have promised to reach that threshold, but Linkevicius said it’s not to extent it should be.
The Baltic States have an annual defense budget of $1.56 billion combined, a mere fraction of Russia’s $66.4 billion defense spending in 2015. Comparatively, the United States spends 3.5 percent on defense, with a budget of more than $600 billion.
Linkevicius also said the effect of Russian propaganda is “enormous,” not just in Eastern states, but Western Europe, as well.
While not directly speculating, Linkevicius said that Russian propaganda targeting Western Europe is “casting doubt” on the European system, possibly having influence on the British referendum vote to leave the European Union.
Linkevicius said Brexit would have “no direct impact” on NATO and Lithuania’s defense against Russian force in the Baltic States. It would not directly relate to the security of NATO, but instead the economy and unity of the European Union.
“It’s a holistic approach. These other aspects will be weakened by the U.K. leaving the EU,” Linkevicius said. “The situation is not very promising, but we have to compensate.”
Censorship is not the way to stop propaganda, but we should be providing some alternatives, Linkevicius said. “There is a lack of resilience and understanding” of propaganda throughout Europe.
“We must be equally concerned about Western European societies, not just Eastern states, when dealing with Russian propaganda,” Linkevicius said.
Lithuanian ambassador to the United States Rolandas Krisciunas said Russia is “poisoning the minds of people” across Europe.
“Russia is playing our democracy to its advantage,” Krisciunas said. “We should be cautious about this.”
