Just coming across is the news that Wisconsin Senator Herb Kohl (D) will announce his retirement. His decision forces the Democrats to defend yet another Senate seat next year, making their hold on the institution even more precarious.
Had he decided to run again, Kohl would have almost certainly been easily re-elected. After a close first election in 1988, Kohl has never received less than 58% of the vote. His ability to self-finance has always been cited as a main reason for his prowess, but there are other reasons for his strong showings, including a stellar statewide casework operation and his low key, yet approachable, demeanor. While a lot of Wisconsinites may not like the way he votes, they tend to like him personally.
With his decision to step aside, I thought I’d do a quick run-down of possible candidates. Despite the 2010 movement toward the Republican ticket in the Badger State, the Democrats have, in my estimation, a deeper bench to draw from. Also, with higher turnout expected in a presidential year and the increased Democratic mobilization in recent months, I would expect that, on average, this race favors them.
So, who will we be hearing a lot about over the coming days and weeks?
Starting with the Democrats, the marquee name that many will look to first is former Senator Russ Feingold (D). Defeated in the 2010 landslide, Feingold has the benefit of nonetheless winning three statewide races. With strong credentials on fiscal matters and long cultivated independent streak, Feingold may benefit from buyer’s remorse among Wisconsin voters upset with the direction taken by Governor Scott Walker (R) and the state in the past year.
The next name to keep an eye on is 3rd district congressman Ron Kind. Like Feingold, Kind has worked hard to establish his moderate bona fides in Congress, and has styled himself in the Blue Dog mold. He represents a largely rural, yet Democratic, part of the state. Western Wisconsin has long had a progressive tradition and Kind has tapped into keeping the seat in Democratic hands since his first election in 1996. Strategically, he makes the most sense for Democrats in that his candidacy would allow the party to combine the votes of the heavily Democratic Milwaukee and Madison areas with these western parts of the state, creating an electoral coalition that would be very difficult to beat.
The third Democrat to watch, also part of the state’s House delegation, is 2nd District congresswoman Tammy Baldwin. Baldwin would make the most progressive nominee and comes from the state’s liberal bastion, Madison. Dane County is not only the state’s second largest, but also consistently ranks either first or second in voter turnout. Thus, Baldwin would come into the race with a large base of support who could be counted on the show up. Also, Baldwin’s following tends to be extremely passionate. She has demonstrated an ability to turn out normally apathetic student voters in high numbers. As the recent protests in Madison demonstrated, there are a lot of active Democrats in the state and they would flock to a Baldwin candidacy. Furthermore, her district extends into more rural parts of the state (and borders Kind’s district) and she has performed strongly there as well. Coupled with strong Milwaukee turnout, she could cobble together the necessary coalition to win.
The one potential hurdle to her candidacy, and this will surely be mentioned in the coverage, is that Baldwin would become the first openly gay senator. Her sexual orientation has not been a hindrance in her House district (and could prove to be a financial boon in when it comes to national fundraising) but could prove more troublesome in a statewide race.
Lets turn to the Republican side:
Here, all eyes are going to be on 1st District congressman Paul Ryan. With his prominence in the current budget battles on Capitol Hill as Chairman of the Budget Committee, Ryan has received more attention than any other Wisconsin politician in recent months, even the governor. He is young, charismatic, personable, and has been bestowed with the accolade of “serious” by the national press corps. He represents the southeastern part of the state, an area that tends to be heavily competitive, and would thus bring voters to the race that might potentially vote Democratic with someone else on the ticket. There has been much speculation through the years that Ryan has been waiting for just this opportunity to take the next step on his career journey.
While his “Path to Prosperity” budget plan has been criticized for its cuts to Medicare and other programs—which will surely offer Democrats a litany of attack lines during a campaign—I would anticipate that Ryan has first dibs on the nomination if he wants it. He would be able to raise incredible sums nationally given his following in conservative circles as well.
Should Ryan decide to remain in the House, Wisconsin Republicans will probably turn to recently re-elected Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen. Van Hollen hails from northern Wisconsin which could allow for a coalition of rural northerners and Milwaukee suburbanites to capture the seat. While not as high profile as Congressman Ryan, he would be a credible candidate and probably wouldn’t generate as much red-meat opposition that a Ryan candidacy would.
Beyond Ryan and Van Hollen, there are no other top tier Republican candidates that jump out. While there are four other Republican House members, neither seems cut out for the race. The two most senior, the 5th District’s James Sensenbrenner and the 6th District’s Tom Petri both have more than 30 years of congressional experience. At the same time, neither has shown much ambition for higher office. Sensenbrenner represents the most consistently conservative part of the state and has developed a voting record to match it, which could prove problematic in a statewide campaign. Petri, on the other hand, has a more moderate record which could serve to turn off more staunch Republicans.
Up in the northern parts of the state, 1st term House members Sean Duffy and Reid Ribble from the 7th and 8th Districts have yet to establish themselves and are probably too new to mount a Senate campaign, especially if it were to be against the likes of Feingold, Kind or Baldwin. They are, in many’s estimation, more a product of the 2010 environment than a more normal Wisconsin electorate.
So there’s a quick rundown of where things might go with today’s announcement. Even without the events of the past few months, Wisconsin was going to be a battleground in 2012. It is crucial for both parties’ presidential aspirations and it now has an open Senate seat to even further drive up attention and mobilization.
