Montana Gov. Steve Bullock is on track to replace California Rep. Eric Swalwell on the Democratic presidential primary debate stage in July, according to a new poll and clarification about debate qualification procedures.
The Democratic National Committee capped the number of candidates for the June and July debates at 20, and only 20 candidates qualified for the June debate by meeting the threshold of 65,000 individual donors or 1% support in three qualifying polls. Bullock declared his candidacy later than all his rivals, while Swalwell qualified through 1% support in three polls.
But since the June debate qualification cutoff, Bullock has met the polling threshold for qualification in July, prompting complicated tie-breaking procedures to decide which 20 of the 21 candidates will make the debate sage. That’s where things get tricky for lower-tier candidates.
First preference for debate slots goes to candidates who meet both the polling and donor thresholds, but neither Bullock nor Swalwell has announced reaching 65,000 donors.
In that case, the DNC will average the top three qualifying polls for each candidate, and if there is still a tie, choose the candidate with the most qualifying polls.
A Tuesday report from FiveThirtyEight and early morning Wednesday New York Times report found both Bullock and Swalwell both had 1% averages, but Bullock had four qualifying polls while Swalwell had three. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday pushes Bullock to five qualifying polls to Swalwell’s three, according to Politico’s tracker.
Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio also have 1% averages and have not announced reaching 65,000 donors to secure their spots. Bennet has six qualifying polls and de Blasio has eight, per Politico.
Swalwell has not gained another qualifying poll since he met the threshold in April.
Bullock’s campaign last month criticized the DNC for a “secret rule change” that kept Bullock from qualifying for the June debates. The DNC said that a Washington Post/ABC poll in which Bullock garnered 1% support would not count for qualification because it was an open-ended poll, where participants named their preferred candidate rather than choosing one from a list.
Many news organizations previously thought that the poll counted and expected Bullock to qualify for the June debate, but the DNC clarification meant Bullock had two qualifying polls instead of the necessary three.
But now, a DNC rule clarification could end up helping Bullock.
Poll trackers were previously unsure how Suffolk University/USA Today national and Iowa polls, which present both rounded not rounded figures, would factor into tie-breaking procedures. In its June national poll, for instance, Bullock received 0.52% support, but that rounds to 1%.
In an email reportedly sent to candidates Tuesday, the DNC said it will also use the rounded number for tie-breaking procedures.
The Swalwell and Bullock campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.
