NBC News moves Texas from ‘Lean Republican’ to ‘Toss Up’ for 2020 presidential race

Texas’s status change moved Trump’s predicted electoral vote count from 163 to 125. Biden’s projected electoral votes continue to hover above the needed 270 votes to win the presidency.

One hundred and thirty-four electoral votes remain in the “Toss Up” category on the map, which is based off public polling and conversations with Democratic and Republican strategists.

Three critical battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are categorized as “Lean Democratic.” The three states, among the most competitive in the country, were won by Trump in 2016, who broke years of Democratic dominance.

Texas hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter won the state over Republican Gerald Ford in 1976. In 2012, Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by over 15 points, and in 2016 Trump captured the state over his challenger, Hillary Clinton, by nine points.

The 2018 midterms reflected the growing Democratic presence in the state with a close Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke, who lost and later ran an unsuccessful campaign for president early in the Democratic primary.

The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler issued a new poll on Sunday, showing Biden leading Trump 48-45.

Mark Owens, who directed the poll, told the paper that Biden’s lead might mirror much of the national attitude toward Trump.

“Texas remains a toss-up because of the public’s attitudes toward President Trump,” Owens said.

The public’s sentiment toward Trump may be reflected in national polls, which show Biden leading the president for months.