With the number of murders in Baltimore City threatening to hit 300 this year, the solution on the table by nearly every political candidate is to add more police to serve the population.
What no one appears to have asked is one question: Will it work?
Statistics suggest it?s not the answer, and criminologists say it might have the opposite impact.
“With [the] police-to-population ratio, you would think the bigger the rate gets, the lower crime would be, but when you look at the crime numbers you sometimes see the exact opposite,” said Michael White, criminologist at John Jay College School of Criminal Justice in New York.
Sheldon Greenberg, associate dean and director of the Division of Public Safety at Johns Hopkins University, said, “There is no correlation between crime rate or anything else and the number of officers. It?s all political rhetoric.”
As of today, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York staff 4.5 officers per 1,000 residents, which is above the national norm reported by the U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics of 2.5 officers per 1,000 residents. In comparison, D.C.?s Metropolitan Police Department has 6.9 officers per 1,000 residents, about 60 percent more law enforcement personnel per resident than Baltimore.
The number of violent crimes reported per 1,000 residents in D.C. is only 2.1 percent lower than Baltimore. However, in New York and Philadelphia, which both staff 4.5 officers per 1,000 residents, New York is a much safer city, according to the violent crime rates.
“That?s because where you put officers is more important than how many you have,” Greenberg said. “You always staff patrol first ? if officers cannot adequately respond to calls from citizens, then everything else suffers.”
On average, Greenberg said, police departments allocate 60 percent to 65 percent of sworn officers to patrol. In Baltimore, the number is far lower ? 52 percent. Greenberg said Baltimore has de-emphasized patrol.
“Up until [six] years ago, Baltimore had a culture that emphasized patrol and some years ago they got away from that,” he said.
Police Commissioner Leonard Hamm recently said the city is committed to increasing patrol staffing to 60 percent.
Mayoral spokesman Anthony McCarthy said the department is balancing its resources between patrol and specialized units, and making adjustments.
City Councilman Jack Young, D-District 12, said the patrol officers have not seen those adjustments.
“I?m hearing from officers in my district that they are short on patrol,” he said.
Young said the public?s sense of safety should dictate staffing levels for the police department.
“Whatever makes the citizens feel safe … if that means putting more officers on the street, than so be it,” he said.
CRIME STATS
Baltimore
» Population: 635,815
» Sworn officers: 2,900
» Police per 1,000 residents: 4.5
» Homicides per 100,000 residents: 43
» Violent crimes per 1,000 residents: 16.9
Washington, D.C
» Population: 550,521
» Sworn officers: 3,800
» Police per 1,000 residents: 6.9
» Homicides per 100,000 residents: 29
» Violent crimes per 1,000 residents: 14.8.
New York
» Population: 8,143,197
» Sworn officers: 37,038
» Police per 1,000 residents: 4.5
» Homicides per 100,000 residents: 7
» Violent crimes per 1,000 residents: 6.3
Philadelphia
» Population: 1,463,281
» Sworn officers: 6,580
» Police per 1,000 residents: 4.5
» Homicides per 1,000 residents: 27
» Violent crimes per 1,000: 15.6
Source: U.S. Department of Justice, census data, police agencies
