Polling experts are seeing signs of a “blue wave” in the House two hours into polls closing in some states Tuesday evening.
“It’s always hard to know, with a live election night model, whether you’ve got things set up too conservatively or too aggressively. But our model really likes how things are going for Democrats in the House so far,” FiveThirtyEight editor in chief Nate Silver tweeted.
“We’ve got a lot of early vote so far. Need to see some more electon [sic] ay vote. But I don’t have any good news for Republicans hoping for a big polling error or to hold the House,” tweeted Nate Cohn, who covers polling for the New York Times.
“I don’t see anything that indicates a systematic forecasting error. From here, the GOP just needs a ton of luck. Scratch out 1, 2, 3 point wins, over and over,” Cohn added.
Democrats have already made some gains in contests called early. Among them, Democrat Jennifer Wexton beat incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock, capturing the seat for Democrats for the first time in 40 years.
In Florida, Democrat Donna Shalala is projected to win the contest to replace retiring Florida Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen over GOP candidate Maria Elvira Salazar.
Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House, which most polling analysts say is likely. They are more confident of the GOP maintaining power in the Senate.
