The U.S. Navy has a vision for the future of a much bigger fleet with much different ships to meet a much different threat, which will require a much bigger budget.
Despite having no plan on how to get there, the civilian in charge of the Navy was brimming with confidence when testifying before Congress last month.
“You have my personal assurance that we are still deeply committed to building that larger, more capable, more distributed naval force within what I consider a strategic, relevant time frame of no more than 10 years,” said acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly in an appearance before the House Armed Services Committee.
Under a provision of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act, the Navy is required to increase the number of its battle force ships from the current 296 to 355 “as soon as practicable.”
While enshrined in law, Rep. Adam Smith, the Democratic chairman of the committee, believes the goal is laudable but laughable.
“It’s great to have goals, I suppose, and we can aspire towards that number. But this point, it seems like just that, an aspiration,” Smith said.
The problem, says Smith, is that there just isn’t enough time or money to add that many warships. “It’s almost meaningless at this point since it’s like 20, 30 years out.”
What’s more important, Smith argues, is to avoid getting hung up on the number of ships and instead focus on the kinds of ships that will be needed in a world that will soon include hypersonic ship-killing missiles and superstealthy submarines being fielded by China and Russia.
“You could have 355 rowboats theoretically, and you’d have 355 ships,” he said. “I would much rather see, ‘Here are the capabilities that we need to have.'”
The 355 number comes from the Navy’s 2016 Force Structure Assessment, an effort to determine the right size and shape of the fleet to meet the “ever-evolving and increasingly complex threats” facing the Navy of the future.
That assessment, completed just a month before President Trump took office, assumed the Navy would be mostly building and buying more of the same kinds of warships it has now, particularly replacements for 12 massive aircraft carriers, once the preeminent symbol of America’s unmatched naval power.
Just this month, Modly announced a six-month study of how America’s future carrier force can be adapted to survive advanced, next-generation long-range weapons, and he hinted the Navy might cap the purchase of new Ford-class aircraft carriers at four.
“I think we have a duty to look at what will come after the Ford. And the fact that we made a two-carrier buy for the last two, it gives us some breathing room,” Modly told the Senate early this month.
The Navy is heading toward a fleet that is built around more amphibious assault ships that can carry the new F-35B, which is capable of short takeoffs and vertical landings, as well as more attack submarines, smaller and faster frigates, and autonomous, unmanned “ghost ships” that don’t require a crew.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper has taken a personal interest in the modernization plans, ordering his competing review to check against the Navy’s assumptions.
“My gut feeling is we need more than 355, not just to deliver effects, but we need presence,” Esper told the Senate Armed Services Committee in early March.
“We have to have more ships, but smaller. We need to have, I believe, more attack submarines. We need to move more quickly into unmanned,” Esper said. “We need to have the ability to be survivable.”
Esper’s call for more fast-attack submarines struck a raw nerve with members of both the House and Senate Armed Services committees, who were vexed by the decision to cut one Virginia-class submarine from this administration’s budget request for next year to use the $1.6 billion for the National Nuclear Security Administration.
Another $4 billion was shifted from shipbuilding to maintenance of the current fleet to address the backlog of ships awaiting repairs.
“We have a readiness challenge. It’s been well documented,” Esper said. “The GAO said last year in 2019 due to maintenance challenges, the equivalent of 19 ships didn’t go to sea.”
The result is a flat budget for fiscal year 2021, and that’s not going to get the Navy to 355 ships anytime soon.
“Only about 10% of the Navy’s budget is devoted towards building ships, and if you look at the current path that you’re on, we’re only going to have a net increase of eight ships in the next five years,” said Republican Rep. Rob Wittman, whose district includes Norfolk Naval Base and Newport News Shipbuilding. “You’ve talked about getting to 355 by 2030 — that is an impossible task based on the current pace.”
“I don’t think it’s impossible,” insisted Modly, “I think either of two things would have to happen for it to be possible. One is a reasonable plan that demonstrates how we can get there on an accelerated path, and [the other is] political will. That’s it. Those two things come together — then, I think we can do it.”
As acting secretary, Modly will likely never have to come back to Congress to explain if he’s wrong.
Trump has nominated Kenneth Braithwaite, the current U.S. ambassador to Norway, to become his Navy secretary, but as of yet, his confirmation hearing has not been scheduled.
Jamie McIntyre is the Washington Examiner’s senior writer on defense and national security. His morning newsletter, “Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense,” is free and available by email subscription at dailyondefense.com.
