More than 140 years after hosting some of the bloodiest clashes of the Civil War, Prince William and Loudoun counties are battlegrounds once again, this time in the race for the White House.
The red hue Virginia traditionally takes on during the presidential election — having voted for every Republican candidate since 1968 — could turn blue this year, according to polls that show Democrat Barack Obama ahead in the Old Dominion.
But whether Obama is able to make history by winning here, or Republican candidate John McCain is able to hold on to the state, will likely depend on voters in Prince William and Loudoun counties, which behaved reliably Republican in elections a decade ago but have turned partially blue — or at least purple — thanks mostly to massive population growth that has brought increased support for Democrats.
Experts say these outer suburbs of Washington will decide which candidate will win the state on Nov. 4, and many believe a victory in Virginia is critical for either McCain or Obama to secure the White House.
“I don’t think it’s a secret that McCain can’t win the presidency without Virginia, and my guess is he can’t win without Prince William and without Loudoun,” said state GOP Chairman Jeff Frederick, who is also a state delegate representing Woodbridge.
Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart has declared the two counties “ground zero” in the presidential race to win the state. Located at the western border of Fairfax County, which has basically become a Democratic stronghold, Prince William and Loudoun “are the battleground in that dividing line between Northern Virginia and the rest of the state.”
The once solidly Republican composition of the two counties began to change rapidly in the past five years as residents in the more urbanized areas around Washington, D.C., pushed westward, causing a population explosion in Loudoun and Prince William.
Between 2000 and 2006, Prince William County grew by more than 27 percent, and Loudoun’s population expanded a staggering 58.5 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. New residents were drawn to new jobs and affordable housing that has become less attainable in closer-in suburbs of Washington. The growth brought an influx of young families who have started to replace the older residents who typically vote Republican.
In 2008, nearly 13,000 new voters have registered in Loudoun and nearly 18,000 voters have been added this year to the rolls in Prince William.
State Democratic Party spokesman Jared Leopold believes most of those new voters are either Democrats or independents, though the state does not record voter party preference.
“We feel pretty strongly about those new voters, that they are going to side with Obama,” Leopold said.
Leopold’s confidence is based on statistics showing 61 percent of Virginia’s new voters are under age 34, an age group that has solidly sided with Obama.
But state GOP officials say they are confident Virginia will fall to McCain with solid support from Prince William and Loudoun as it has in every presidential election since selecting Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said Prince William and Loudoun are among several critical swing areas that will decide who wins Virginia. “Virginia Beach City, York County, Chesapeake, Albemarle County, Roanoke County, Montgomery County,”
Sabato said, are all undecided. “I would include Henrico County around Richmond and I would also include Stafford and Spotsylvania.”
But voter behavior in Prince William and Loudoun could predict what happens overall in Virginia on Election Day, he said. “If both counties vote for Obama, my sense is that he will win the state,” Sabato said. “That tells me he is almost certainly winning some of the other exurbs.”
In the 2004 election, George Bush beat Democrat John Kerry 53 percent to 46 percent in Prince William and 56 percent to 44 percent in Loudoun County.
“It’s one thing to look at charts and population shifts, but it’s another thing to roll up your sleeves and talk to the actual voters,” said Loudoun County Republican Committee Chairman Glen Caroline. “The people we are talking to by phone and in person are certainly very enthusiastic about John McCain and Sarah Palin.”
And while some state polling has given Obama as much as a 10-point lead, political experts and Virginia officials from both parties say the race is much closer.
But Democrats have statistics to boost their optimism about winning the two counties, including the 2005 gubernatorial election results. Democratic Govs. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine made significant political inroads in these former exurbs. Just a year after Bush’s re-election victory in those two counties, Kaine prevailed over Republican Jerry Kilgore in Prince William 50 percent to 48 percent and in Loudoun 52 percent to 43 percent.
The infrastructure Kaine and Warner built in these two counties, “is paying dividends now,” Leopold said, and the party has set up multiple offices in each county and “ramped up efforts to get the undecideds out there.”
Prince William County Democratic Party Chairman Pete Frisbie said traditional Republicans are also among those whom Democrats are courting for Obama.
Frisbie said when he knocks on neighborhood doors in Prince William, Republicans say they blame Bush for the troubled economy and plan to vote for Obama.
“If I had a dollar for every door like that, I’d be a rich man this year,” Frisbie said. “It’s really amazing. I’ve never seen anything like it before.”
Former state Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, who is co-chairman of the McCain’s Virginia campaign, dismissed such talk as “a lot of spin.”
“If you look at the demographics in both counties, particularly in the western parts of both counties, it tends to lean Republican,” Kilgore said. “And we saw a huge increase in voter registration four years ago, and at the end of the day, we got our share of the new voters.”
Bryan Polk, the vice mayor of Manassas Park, said Prince William is the least likely of the two counties to pick the Democratic presidential candidate this year, thanks to a significant voter base of senior citizens and military.
“Even though there has been a bit more of a liberal population trend, it’s still not quite the majority,” Polk said.
Stewart, the Republican county supervisors chairman, agreed, but said McCain still needs to shore up support.
McCain answered the call Wednesday, announcing a rally in Woodbridge to be held Saturday afternoon. It will be his first visit to either of the counties of the campaign. Obama visited Prince William County in June.
“McCain can win the county,” Stewart said. “But McCain needs to pay more attention to the county in order to win it.”
