Is New Jersey governor and Republican Governors Association chairman Chris Christie undercutting Wisconsin governor Scott Walker’s reelection effort? That’s a question a number of influential Wisconsin Republicans have been asking behind the scenes over the past week after an October 16 Associated Press report indicated that Walker and his allies were being outspent by Democratic challenger Mary Burke and her allies.
“The Center for Public Integrity reported Thursday that Walker and his backers spent nearly $6.1 million on ads through Monday, while Burke and her supporters ran nearly $6.6 million,” the AP reported on Thursday. On Sunday, Walker told the Washington Post‘s Robert Costa: “We are always looking for more help. Our main help has to be the RGA.” But according to the Center for Public Integrity, the Republican Governors Association has spent $5.9 million on TV ads in Michigan, where Governor Rick Snyder is up for reelection, and just $801,000 on TV ads in Wisconsin.
Why would the RGA spend more on Rick Snyder than Scott Walker? A number of top Wisconsin Republicans have expressed the same concern in separate conversations with THE WEEKLY STANDARD: That RGA chairman Chris Christie might be tanking Walker, a potential rival for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. As Republican governors who took on public employee unions in blue states, Christie and Walker would be chasing after some of the same donors and voters in the 2016 race (if both men decide to run). Knocking Walker out of the running now (while giving extra help to Rick Snyder, a governor of an important early GOP primary state) could be in Christie’s interest.
But a GOP source with knowledge of RGA spending threw cold water on this theory. The source claimed that total RGA spending–a “large majority” of which is “focused on TV ads” but also includes things like polling, research, and field operations–has actually been $6 million in Wisconsin and $10 million in Michigan as of Tuesday. But, the source said, the RGA has $4 to $5 million in TV ad time reserved in Wisconsin for the final two weeks of the election, and the RGA will end up spending more in Wisconsin than Michigan by the time the election is over.* (The Center for Public Integrity numbers certainly do appear to miss a lot: CPI doesn’t show any RGA spending in Florida, but the source says the RGA has spent $17 million to date in the sunshine state).
If these numbers are true–and their accuracy will certainly be scrutinized after the election when all FEC reports have been published–then concerns that Christie is undercutting Walker would appear to be unfounded. The RGA spent $5 million on Walker in 2010 and $9 million in 2012 to help him fend of the recall effort. So RGA spending under Christie in 2014 may very well exceed previous RGA efforts for Walker.
A Christie snub of Walker would be odd, considering the fact that the two men have been friends–actual friends, not the just political friends–for several years now. And Walker has raised significant money for the RGA while Christie has been running it.
Even if the RGA comes through for Walker, it’s unclear if he will have the advantage on TV ad spending during the final days of the campaign. Wisconsin Republicans say that the secret “John Doe” investigation into the campaign finances of conservative political organizations–an investigation has been halted by judges, pending appeal–is keeping some conservative money on the sidelines. The investigation, which included pre-dawn raids and the collection of thousands of private emails, effectively told conservative political groups to “stay the hell out of Wisconsin,” according to one Wisconsin GOP operative. “You can’t be a conservative issue group outside of Wisconsin and believe it’s simple and easy to participate in Wisconsin state politics.”
Walker and Burke are currently running neck-and-neck, with Burke holding a 0.3-point lead, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
*Update: “Two Weeks Out, RGA Reduces Spending Target in Wisconsin?”
