Top Virginia Republicans are scrambling to capitalize on Democratic disarray in Richmond, eyeing fresh opportunities for President Trump in 2020 but hamstrung by a rudderless state party plagued by turmoil.
Scandal is threatening to fell the top three Democrats in Virginia’s capital, Gov. Ralph Northam, Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, and Attorney General Mark Herring. The tumult could cost Democrats seats in the legislature this November in the off-year elections Virginia holds, while boosting Trump’s prospects across the commonwealth. Virginia has been trending blue for more than a decade, and Republicans had presumed it off the table for 2020.
The Republican Party isn’t immediately positioned to profit from its unexpected good fortune. The GOP’s state affiliate is in shambles, and the Trump campaign, although it has time to ramp up, isn’t entrenched on the ground. That could hinder Republican gains in upcoming elections, even as a Democratic meltdown loosens what appeared to be a liberal vise grip on Virginia voters.
“The state party is in no shape to take advantage of any of this,” said John Fredericks, a conservative talk radio host in southern Virginia who was chairman of Trump’s 2016 campaign there. “But I’m going to make the case to the president’s 2020 team that Virginia is now a winnable state.”
Virginia politics was turned upside down this month when it was revealed Northam’s page on his mid-1980s medical school yearbook included a racist photograph of two people in costume, one dressed as a Ku Klux Klan member and the other wearing blackface. A few days later, Herring admitted to donning blackface as part of a costume, which also happened decades ago.
Meanwhile, two women have accused Fairfax of sexual assault in incidents they say happened several years ago. He denies the charges.
It was assumed Northam would be forced to resign, with Fairfax, an African American and rising star in Virginia politics, taking over. Now, all three officials could stay put. The scandals could undercut Democrats with two constituencies that have been abandoning the GOP in droves: nonwhite voters and women — both white and nonwhite.
Republicans in Richmond and Washington still assessing the impact of the trio of scandals. To the extent splintered Virginia Republicans have a ringleader, that role has been assumed by Kirk Cox, the speaker of the House of Delegates, and his political team.
Some Republican insiders are privately cautious about a Trump turnaround in Virginia. Hillary Clinton soundly defeated him there in 2016, and more GOP losses ensued in the commonwealth in the two years that followed part of a backlash against the president and demographic trends that favor the Democrats.
But Republicans are newly optimistic about holding their thin General Assembly majorities after beginning the year bracing for more losses. That could increase GOP influence in the next round of federal redistricting that could partially determine how many lawmakers each party sends to Congress. Especially if Northam is wounded, he might cave to demands for friendly district lines, similar to how he acquiesced to the Republicans on a just-passed spending bill.
“Huge” was the word Chris Lacivita, a veteran Republican consultant in Virginia, used to describe the impact the Democratic meltdown could have on 2019 state legislative races. “There will be an impact. It’s not a question of if, but how much,” he said. There’s just one caveat: District boundaries for the House of Delegates could get thrown out by a federal court, with any changes imposed benefiting the Democrats.
One Republican who revealed Friday that he was running for the Virginia House of Delegates is using the Democratic unraveling in Richmond as the basis for his candidacy.
“Where are our principles?” the female voiceover says as the announcement video for Randy Minchew, a former delegate, opens. “Where are our morals? … Virginia is better than this; our leaders should be, too.”
