Inflation is overshadowing small improvements in the economy, despite the White House and President Joe Biden’s attempts to promote post-pandemic job numbers and the unemployment rate.
But the problem is inflation is not tapped to ease before the 2022 midterm elections, posing more obstacles for Democrats should they wish to retain their majorities on Capitol Hill.
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The economy added 431,000 jobs in March for a pandemic-era low unemployment rate of 3.6%, according to the Labor Department last week. But more than a third of Navigator Research survey respondents told pollsters last month more jobs were lost last year, and fewer than 3 in 10 registered voters said there had been job gains. Unemployment was 6.4% when Biden was inaugurated at the start of 2021.
The White House’s repetition of this data is not moving public opinion regarding the economy, which, if left unchecked, will hinder Democrats in the fall. Republicans already have an almost 4 percentage-point average advantage over Democrats on a generic congressional ballot before the cycle. And Biden’s average net negative 22-point economic job approval is worse than his overall job approval of net negative 13 points.
The White House has to amplify its economic message if it wants its accomplishments to boost Democrats in November, according to Darrell West, the Brookings Institution’s Douglas Dillon Chair in Governance Studies.
“War, the pandemic, and inflation are overshadowing the job creation, and the administration needs to strengthen its communications so that people know the good things that are happening,” he told the Washington Examiner. “If they don’t do a better job, it will hurt Democrats in the 2022 elections.”
Former President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Biden’s Democratic predecessors, echoed West’s advice this week.
“We got a story to tell, just got to tell it,” Obama told reporters during his White House return to talk about healthcare.
For Bipartisan Policy Center Senior Vice President Bill Hoagland, a budget and economics expert, job growth is being negated by a lack of wage growth because voters are struggling to afford food, housing, and energy.
In terms of food-related measures, using the Federal Trade Commission to break down monopolies would take time and political capital Biden and Democrats do not have, and former President Jimmy Carter’s price control experiment was unsuccessful in the 1970s, according to Hoagland.
“I focus a lot on food prices, and that’s something you can’t turn around real quickly,” he said. “It takes a while to produce a litter of pigs. It takes a while to build up a flock of laying hens. It takes a while to grow soybeans.”
Instead, the White House has concentrated on the cost of cars and gas, as Biden can exert a modicum of power over them by shoring up microchip supplies, encouraging electric vehicle purchases, and releasing barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve amid negotiations with domestic and foreign oil producers. At the same time, the president and aides have pointed to “Putin’s price hike” as the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates.
“One aspect of the war is clearly the shutdown of the breadbasket of Europe, which is Ukraine and Russia,” Hoagland said. “They can use the Ukraine situation to blame some of the wheat price and flour price increases, but I think it’s a little bit more speculative.”
White House press secretary Jen Psaki was pushed on the Navigator poll this week during a briefing. In her response, she claimed all she could do from behind her podium is “share the facts.”
“The fact is that the president created more jobs last year than any year in American history,” she said. “That is a very simple fact that I probably cannot say enough from here, and our allies and partners cannot say enough out there in the country. We will just have to continue to work at it.”
Psaki then repeated the White House’s viewpoint that voters are “still feeling the impact of COVID,” “the impact of the cost of items,” and “the invasion of Ukraine.”
“Those impact how people feel. We see that in consumer confidence,” she added. “I can’t assess what is in the brain of every American, but I can tell you what the facts are.”
Republicans also dismiss the idea that Democrats’ troubles are a messaging issue. They are facing the political consequences of causing 40-year high inflation and record-setting fuel pump sticker shock as they recklessly spend Americans’ tax dollars, according to Republican National Committee spokeswoman Nicole Morales.
“Voters know Biden is why they are paying more for everything, and Democrats will pay the price in November,” she said.
Democratic National Committee spokesman Ammar Moussa countered that Republicans are standing “in the way” of economic progress by not supporting Democratic legislation, backing Florida Sen. Rick Scott’s tax plan, and blocking Federal Reserve nominees.
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“Every day between now and November, voters can be sure to hear about Republican lawmakers cheering against our economic recovery and refusing to help families, while President Biden and Democrats work tirelessly to lower costs, bring gas prices down, and cut prescription drug prices,” Moussa said.
