Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to ratify Sweden’s entry into NATO, ending a blockade that disrupted trans-Atlantic efforts to fortify European security following Russia’s launch of a full-scale war in Ukraine.
“This is good for all of us,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Monday in Vilnius, Lithuania. “This is good for Sweden. Sweden will become a full member of the lines. It’s good for Turkey because Turkey is a NATO ally that will benefit from a stronger NATO. And then, of course, it’s good for the whole alliance.”
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Stoltenberg’s announcement followed a final round of negotiations with Erdogan, who used his effective veto power over Sweden’s accession as leverage to extract political concessions from Stockholm. That process culminated in a last-minute signal that he would not approve Sweden’s entry unless the European Union revived Turkey’s long-dormant bid for membership in the continent’s economic and political bloc — an unrelated issue, but a demand that paid off in the form of new pledges from Sweden and Brussels.
“Sweden will actively support efforts to reintegrate Turkey’s EU accession process, including modernization of the EU-Turkey, a customs union, and visa liberalization,” Stoltenberg said. “This is not a NATO issue. This is reflecting a bilateral agreement between an EU member-state, Sweden, and Turkey. But it is part of what we discussed.”
The president welcomed the decision against a backdrop of speculation that Erdogan used the ratification process to pressure the United States to upgrade the Turkish fleet of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets.
President Joe Biden “welcome[d] the statement” from Stoltenberg, Erdogan, and Swedish Prime Ulf Kristersson in a separate message.
“I welcome the statement issued by Turkiye, Sweden, and the NATO Secretary-General this evening, including the commitment by President Erdogan to transmit the Accession Protocol for Sweden to Turkiye’s Grand National Assembly for swift ratification,” President Joe Biden said in a statement issued by the White House, using the Turkish spelling of the country’s name. “I stand ready to work with President Erdogan and Turkiye on enhancing defense and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area.”
Turkey and Hungary are the only two NATO members that have not ratified Sweden’s entry, but Hungary’s acquiescence is widely perceived as a formality pending Erdogan’s decision. “Hungary’s position is fundamentally shaped by the preferences of Turkey,” an unnamed Hungarian official told Politico in April.
Biden’s applause came against the backdrop of a widespread perception that Erdogan has used the ratification process as leverage to pressure the United States to upgrade the Turkish fleet of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets. Then-President Donald Trump expelled Turkey from the F-35 stealth fighter program in retaliation for Erdogan’s purchase of cutting-edge Russian air defense systems, and key congressional leaders have objected to “a number of previously proposed U.S. arms transactions with Turkey (such as for armed drones, air defense systems, and F-16 information sharing and safety upgrades),” as the Congressional Research Service recently noted.
“We commit to the principle that there should be no restrictions, barriers or sanctions to defense trade and investment among Allies,” the Swedish and Turkish leaders agreed. “We will work towards eliminating such obstacles.”
Sweden NATO accession means Russia’s Baltic Sea fleet has a slight area denial problem if war ever comes. pic.twitter.com/Dl1hT56irZ
— Tom Rogan (@TomRtweets) July 10, 2023
Turkey joined the rest of NATO in inviting Sweden and Finland to join the security bloc last spring, but the dream of concluding that fast-tracked accession process by the Madrid Summit in June soon faded. Erdogan stunned Western officials by announcing that he would not ratify their applications on the grounds that they had imposed arms embargoes on Turkey and gave shelter to Kurdish migrants whom he regards as terrorists.
Stoltenberg helped orchestrate a trilateral agreement on counter-terrorism issues designed to allay Erdogan’s concerns, but Turkey delayed Finland’s accession until March of 2023. Erdogan adopted an even more severe attitude towards Sweden, seizing on Quran burnings staged by far-right activists in Stockholm as a basis to claim that Sweden remained unwilling to confront terrorism. His public posture seemed to harden still further on Monday, when he moved to link Sweden’s entry to Turkey’s EU aspirations.
“Today, nearly all of the NATO-member countries are at the same time a member of the EU,” Erdogan said earlier Monday. “I hereby call on the countries that make Turkey keep waiting at the door of the EU for over 50 years, will make the same call again in Vilnius: First clear the path to the EU in front of Turkey and then we will clear the path in front of Sweden, just as we did for Finland.”
That statement delivered yet another shock to transatlantic observers. “Erdogan has not signaled any serious interest in being in the EU for years,” former Ambassador Kurt Volker, who led the U.S. mission to NATO in 2008, told the Washington Examiner. “It’s not a NATO issue … there should be some signaling from EU countries [about] how to respond to Turkey, just to check the boxes or answer the mail, if you would, but the pushback from NATO is going to be ‘it’s not something we can control.’”
The irritation with Erdogan was apparent in key European capitals. “Sweden meets all the requirements for NATO membership,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters in Berlin. “The other question is one that is not connected with it. And that is why I do not think it should be seen as a connected issue.”
Yet Erdogan’s statement nonetheless presaged a flurry of acquiescent gestures. European Council President Charles Michel met with Erdogan and announced his desire to “bring [EU-Turkey] cooperation back to the forefront & re-energize our relations,” and Sweden separately “agreed to step up economic cooperation” with Erdogan.
“Both Turkey and Sweden will look to maximize opportunities to increase bilateral trade and investments,” the statement said. “Sweden will actively support efforts to reinvigorate Turkiye’s EU accession process, including modernization of the EU-Turkiye Customs Union and visa liberalization.”
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The breakthrough comes as relief to the Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — that have been regarded as the allies most vulnerable to a Russian invasion since they joined NATO in 2004.
“Sweden is very, very important for the entire Baltic region … because it makes the Baltic Sea the internal sea of NATO and facilitates our common operations,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, the host of this week’s summit, said earlier Monday in a press conference with Stoltenberg.
