It has long been hard to see why John Kasich has remained in the presidential race. The slim rationale for his candidacy going into last night was that, even though Kasich had lost every state but his own and had failed to come within ten points of the winner in 32 of 34 states, he would do well in Democratic strongholds in the Northeast. Now that Donald Trump has blown Kasich out in five more Northeastern states—Kasich lost last night by between 29 and 41 points in every state, running his overall won-lost record to 1-38 in the process—any plausible remaining rationale for Kasich’s campaign has collapsed. If he limps on from here, it will be simply be as an exercise in self-delusion.
Meanwhile, the real Republican race—between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz—has become a regional battle. Aside from one state (Maine), Donald Trump has swept the South and the Northeast, generally blowing Cruz out in those contests. Aside from two states (Nevada and Arizona), Ted Cruz has swept the Great Plains and the Frontier Western states, generally blowing Trump out in those contests. Trump and Cruz have split states in the Midwest (Michigan, Missouri, and Illinois to Trump; Iowa and Wisconsin to Cruz) and outside of the contiguous United States (Trump won Hawaii; Cruz won Alaska). And the race will now come down to two states—Indiana and California—outside of the regions where either of the two men have dominated.
Cruz is 3-0 in must-win states, having previously won in Iowa, Texas, and Wisconsin. The Hoosier State now becomes the fourth such state for Cruz, and next Tuesday will show whether the Texan can run his record in must-win battles to 4-0. A win in Indiana would put Cruz in good shape going into California. A loss in the Hoosier State would effectively mean he’d have to win California—a difficult task that would seem to be impossible if Kasich is still hanging around, dividing up the anti-Trump vote in the Golden State. So, for all intents and purposes, Cruz needs to win Indiana for his quest for the nomination to have a Hollywood ending.
Jeffrey H. Anderson is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
