Democrats are aggressively targeting a slew of GOP-held seats in California, hoping that shortly after polls close the Golden State will either increase their party’s new majority or push them over the finish line.
Given the number of Republican retirements and disapproval of President Trump in competitive House races, the battlefield is huge this year. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the official campaign arm of the party, put 92 candidates on their coveted Red to Blue list targeting Republican seats. Of those 92 candidates, 42 are women and 27 are under the age of 40. Democrats are paying close attention to red seats won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Here’s a breakdown of the races to watch from across California.
California 4th
Incumbent: Republican Tom McClintock
Democratic challenger: Jessica Morse
Jessica Morse, a national security consultant, is challenging incumbent Rep. Tom McClintock in this district that lies east of Sacremento and includes four national parks. Polls favor McClintock and so do the demographics — Republicans have a 13-point registration advantage. DCCC is backing Morse, but most handicappers expect this one to stay in GOP hands.
California 10th
Incumbent: Republican Jeff Denham
Democratic challenger: Josh Harder
Republican Rep. Jeff Denham has been a target for Democrats for multiple cycles. This year Democrats hope that Trump’s immigration policies and racially charged rhetoric will hand them the seat. Earlier this year the four-term Rep. Jeff Denham, aware of his tough re-election, challenged Republican leaders to hold a vote on immigration legislation that would have provided protection for so-called Dreamers, but the effort failed. Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, has tried to tether Denham to Trump on immigration and healthcare. Late last month, a New York Times-Siena College poll had Harder leading Denham by two points. FiveThirtyEight give Harder a 77.5 percent chance of flipping the seat.
California 21st
Incumbent: Republican David Valadao
Democratic challenger: TJ Cox
Like, Denham, Rep. David Valadao represents a district with a sizable Latino population. Valadao has distanced himself from his party on immigration, but he and Denham have been unsuccessful in pushing their party leadership for votes to protect Dreamers. Cox, an engineer, has hit Valadao on his votes to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and failed push for Dreamers, but they haven’t stuck. The district went for Clinton by 15 points but FiveThirtyEight only gives Cox a 20 percent chance of flipping the seat.
California 25th
Incumbent: Republican Steve Knight
Democratic challenger: Katie Hill
This race just East of Los Angeles is neck-in-neck. Democrat Katie Hill, a former executive for a non-profit aiding the homeless, was leading incumbent Republican Steve Knight in the polls, but after the confirmation battle over Trump’s Supreme Court pick, Brett Kavanaugh, the race tightened. Knight has tried to tether Hill to a state proposition on the ballot that will repeal a gas tax passed last year. Hill has touted her youth and rejection of corporate PAC money with voters, hitting Knight for being a Washington insider. The race is considered a toss-up by forecasters.
Behind the Orange Curtain
California 39th
Open seat left vacant by retiring Republican Ed Royce
Republican candidate: Young Kim
Democratic candidate: Gil Cisneros
In 2016, Clinton became the first Democrat to win Orange County since the Great Depression. She won this seat by 8.5 points and after the retirement of Rep. Ed Royce, Democrats got another boost. Still, the race is a close one. Democrats have far outraised their Republican opponents this cycle but in this district Republican candidate Young Kim is on top. Kim raised $2.1 million, compared to Democrat Gil Cisneros’s $1.9 million. Kim’s also received support from the Royce machine. Latinos, Asians, and young voters will decide who wins.
California 45th
Incumbent: Mimi Walters
Democratic challenger: Katie Porter
Hillary Clinton may have carried this southern Orange County district by five points, but few expected it to be in play. Republicans long touted incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters’ hold on the district — she won re-election in 2016 by 17 points — and their large Orange County field office designed to protect their grip on the county. But Democrat Katie Porter, a protege of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is within striking distance of Walters. Porter has run an unabashedly progressive campaign, supporting single-payer healthcare and debt-free college in what’s considered a staunchly conservative district. A New York Times-Siena College poll conducted Oct. 26 to Nov. 1, put Porter up by 3 points.
California 48th
Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher
Democratic challenger Harley Rouda
Clinton won this district by 2 points but few thought the wealthy Pacific Coast communities that Rep. Dana Rohrabacher has represented for 30 years were ready to cut ties with him. The race is in a dead heat. Democrat Harley Rouda, who worked in real estate and technology, has hit Rohrabacher, dubbed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “favorite congressman,” on his ties to the Kremlin. Rohrabacher has also come under fire for opposing legal changes to ban housing discrimination against LGBTQ people and his allegiance to Trump. Rouda has received an assist from outside money; former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s PAC has dropped millions into the district, which stretches from Seal Beach to Laguna Beach.
California 49th
Open seat left vacant by retiring Republican Darrell Issa
Republican candidate: Diane Harkey
Democratic candidate: Mike Levin
This seat picks up along the Pacific Coast where Rohrabacher’s ends, running from Dana Point to San Clemente. It’s the best pickup opportunity for Democrats in California. Election forecasters put it in the “lean Democratic” column in January after news of incumbent Rep. Darrell Issa’s retirement. Issa barely won re-election in 2016, making him an obvious target for Democrats this cycle. Though Harkey was hand-picked by Issa, she’s struggled to rise in the polls and her campaign has voiced frustration with the national Republican Party for seemingly writing her off and not spending in the final stretch. Levin has focused on his environmental law background throughout the campaign, vowing to make climate change a top priority if elected.
California 50th
Incumbent: Republican Duncan Hunter
Democratic challenger: Ammar Campa-Najjar
This race is a longshot for Democrats, but if there’s a wave it could push seats like this over the finish line. Rep. Duncan Hunter was indicted in August and he’s run an anti-Muslim campaign against Campa-Najjar, insinuating the 29-year-old Christian is a “security risk.” Despite all of that, Hunter is still favored to win re-election. Campa-Najjar has narrowed Hunter’s lead but in this East San Diego County district that went for Trump by 15 points, the math is on Hunter’s side.
